Gold entered 2026 with a rally, hit a high in late January, then slid through March and recently bottomed out at $4,170/oz for the year so far. Across that stretch, spot gold has mostly moved sideways. On June 9, J.P. Morgan Global Research cut its gold forecasts.
For 2026, the bank now expects gold to average $4,873/oz in Q1, $4,800/oz in Q2, $5,300/oz in Q3, and $6,000/oz in Q4. That puts the full-year average at $5,243/oz, 8% below its February projection. For 2027, it expects $6,200/oz in Q1, $6,250/oz in Q2, and $6,300/oz in Q3 and Q4, for a full-year average of $6,263/oz.
The revised path still implies a strong step-up from 2025, when gold averaged $3,440/oz for the year and $4,152/oz in Q4. Even with the reduction, the projected 2026 average would be more than 50% above 2025's level.
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Gold's 2025 gains were driven partly by central-bank accumulation and by investors seeking protection from geopolitical strains. The first-quarter reversal in reported official sales is therefore a key swing factor for the rest of the year.
The pace of official buying that helped fuel gold's climb may now be slowing, but the published figures tell only part of the story. Central banks sold a reported 129 metric tons in Q1, led by Türkiye's 60-ton March sale. Net buying for the quarter totaled just 16 tons, a clear slowdown. Some official buying can escape the data, because central banks are not obliged to disclose purchases to the IMF, according to the World Gold Council.
Shearer also thinks the standoff among Iran, Israel and the United States could weigh on gold in the near term, even though its course so far reinforces several structural motivations for investors to diversify into the metal. Those motivations include longer-term worries about inflation and the erosion of purchasing power, U.S. fiscal and budgetary strains, geopolitical fragmentation, and doubts about the predictability of U.S. policy. "These themes are on hold until more clarity arrives around a resolution of the Iran conflict, which removes some of the tail risks for energy prices, inflation and yields," Shearer said.
If purchases resume, the bank's higher 2026 targets could find fresh support; if they stay muted, investors may need a catalyst from the Fed or geopolitics.
Where gold heads next likely hinges on how disputes involving Iran, Israel and the U.S. are resolved and on the Fed's next moves; neither is clear at this point. With official buying now less visible and Fed policy in question, gold may remain range-bound until one of those forces shifts.
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