Here is a number that matters for anyone with money tied up in real estate: $875 billion. That is the total unpaid principal on commercial mortgages scheduled to mature in 2026, according to a new survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association. The good news is that this is actually a step down from 2025, when $957 billion was set to mature. That 9% drop suggests the worst of the so-called maturity wall - a period when an unusually large wave of loans all come due at once - is starting to ease. Reggie Booker, an MBA associate vice president focused on commercial and multifamily research, noted that the market is "beginning to move past the peak of the maturity wave."
Not every corner of commercial real estate is in the same boat. Multifamily rentals are at 13 percent, and health care properties at 15%.
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The MBA survey also caught a shift in lender behavior. For years, many banks and investors just kept extending loan terms instead of forcing borrowers to find new financing. That changed in 2025. Mike Fratantoni, the MBA's chief economist, said "lenders were no longer simply extending loan terms" even though long-term interest rates barely moved all year.
Who is holding these loans matters too. Banks and credit unions carry the largest portion - $396 billion, or 21% of all maturing loans. Another $200 billion sits in commercial mortgage-backed securities and similar investments.
Credit companies and other lenders have $163 billion. Life insurers hold $76 billion. And government-backed entities like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac account for $39 billion, mostly in apartments and health care.
But Fratantoni expects the $875 billion in 2026 maturities - plus $652 billion coming in 2027 - to fuel more lending, not less. "Stabilization in property values will also continue to increase transaction activity," he said.
However, Fratantoni's expectation of increased lending activity suggests that lenders and investors are adapting to the new interest rate environment. As property values stabilize, transaction volumes are likely to rise, providing opportunities for both borrowers and lenders to refinance or sell properties. This gradual easing of the maturity wall contrasts with the previous years of uncertainty, when high interest rates and falling valuations made refinancing difficult.
The declining year-over-year maturity totals, combined with the shift away from automatic extensions, point to a market that is slowly absorbing the pressure. The $875 billion due next year, while still enormous, represents a peak that has likely passed. Lenders are now more willing to work through troubled loans rather than defer problems, which could lead to a healthier refinancing cycle in 2026 and beyond.
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