Deep under the Atlantic, off Nigeria's coast, sits the kind of oil that can reshape a country's finances, but getting it out is the problem.
It takes years of work and billions of dollars, and Nigeria has spent years watching investors walk away.
President Bola Tinubu wants to change that. He signed an executive order that gives companies up to $11.50 in tax credits for every barrel produced by new deepwater projects, with Shell Plc's Bonga Southwest Aparo development first in line to benefit.
That would be a turnaround for a sector that has seen money and production slip away.
The tax credits are meant to make Nigeria competitive again.
Tinubu put it this way: "The countries that attract long-term investment are not necessarily those with the greatest natural resources."
He added: "They are the ones that provide the greatest certainty."
The new incentives are not a blank check. They depend on production, and they only apply to new projects.
If a project never produces, the tax break never shows up.
The credit is per barrel, so the more a company produces, the more it benefits.
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There is a similar deal for natural gas.
New non-associated gas projects, meaning gas that is not tied to oil production, get a credit of up to $8 per barrel of oil equivalent.
A barrel of oil equivalent is a standard measure that puts gas and oil on the same scale.
Those credits stay in place until December 31, 2029. After that, the deal changes, and that deadline is a signal to companies: decide now if you want in.
Tinubu has been pushing this direction since he took office in May 2023. His priority is reviving Nigeria's oil sector after years of falling investment and production, and the reasons for that decline are no secret.
Oil theft, pipeline sabotage, and outdated infrastructure have all scared off capital. Tax breaks alone cannot fix those problems.
But they can make the risk look more worthwhile. The whole order is a bet that lower tax bills can outrank the old risks.
This is not just a story about Nigeria. It is a story about oil supply, and oil supply touches your portfolio in a few ways.
If companies actually build these projects, they could add a lot of new oil to the global market down the road.
More supply tends to push prices down over time, which affects everything from gas station prices to energy stocks.
That is a long way off, though. Deepwater projects take years to plan and build, so the tax credits are more of a down payment on future barrels than a quick fix.
For most people, the effect will not show up at the pump anytime soon. But oil is a global market, and every new barrel matters.
For investors in oil companies, the math is easier to see. A credit of up to $11.50 per barrel can make an expensive project easier to justify.
That is why Shell is the first beneficiary of the new tax credits, and other companies may be watching.
Bonga Southwest Aparo is the test case for whether the plan works.
Tinubu says the broader goal is to build an investment environment "defined by clear rules, strong institutions and enduring partnerships."
The country is trying to change course. After years of losing oil investment, the government is now trying to win it back.
Whether the tax breaks deliver that kind of certainty remains to be seen. For anyone with money in the market, the thing to watch is whether other companies follow Shell's lead, because that would mean the bet is working.
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