Based on a Bloomberg survey conducted Sept. 16-Sept. 18, economists currently expect the Riksbank to raise rates by 0.25 percentage point before year-end, bringing the policy rate to 2%. That is a notable shift from last month, when the same milestone was expected in the first quarter of 2027. The median forecast reflects responses from 22 economists.
Overnight index swaps line up with that view, pointing to about 18 basis points of additional tightening by the November decision and roughly 45 basis points of hikes in place by the end of 2026. At the same time, minutes from the latest meeting show policymakers led by Governor Erik Thedéen differed on the odds that inflation could pick back up in the months ahead, even as they agreed that today's subdued price pressures allow them to wait for now.
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Economists also lifted their estimate for Sweden's expansion in the current year to 2.3%, up from 1.9%, while leaving the forecast for next year unchanged at 2.2%. In a separate poll, analysts trimmed Norway's mainland GDP outlook to 1.0% from 1.2% for this year and to 1.4% from 1.6% for next year. If you have exposure tied to Swedish or Norwegian rates or growth, a quicker Riksbank move and shifting Nordic trajectories could ripple through bond yields, currencies, and rate sensitive stocks.
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