Oil prices flashing red. WTI crude trades near $115 per barrel, the highest level since 2022 when prices hit the whole world. The shock this time is speed - prices climbed 70% in four months.
The reason is simple: the world's most critical oil passage is shut. The Strait of Hormuz moves 21% of global oil supply. Right now, it's blocked.
Oil was $67 per barrel before the Iran fight in February. Goldman Sachs says the war risk premium is $14-18 per barrel right now. That's pure panic.
The speed is stunning. January: $61. Early March: $88. Late March: $100. Now: $115. This isn't slow inflation - it's a shock.
Only 62 ships crossed through since March 15. The Strait normally handles hundreds per month. The long route around Africa takes weeks extra and costs more. It's not a real option.
Goldman thinks Brent averages $85 in 2026. But if fighting continues, prices could hit $147 - the 2008 record. The Dallas Fed said closure peaks around $100. We're already 15% above that.
Higher oil means higher gas, higher shipping, higher prices everywhere. That kills the plan to get inflation back to 2%.
Tuesday night matters most. If Iran opens the Strait, oil falls $10-20 on relief. If Trump acts, oil could spike toward $120-130.
Every day blocked, global growth forecasts fall. Markets wait for military news that could come any moment.
