Homebuyers Are Quietly Coming Back, Even As Rates Climb Again

Mortgage rates went up last week, which used to be enough to scare buyers off. This time, the buyers came back anyway.

The Numbers Don't Match The Mood

Total mortgage application volume fell 1.6% for the week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's seasonally adjusted index. The 30-year fixed rate for conforming loans of $832,750 or less rose to 6.37% from 6.35%, with points unchanged at 0.61 for borrowers putting 20% down.

Refinance demand always reacts the fastest to rate moves, and it dropped 4% on the week. But it was still 51% higher than the same week a year ago, when 30-year rates were running about half a percentage point higher.

The real story sits in the purchase line:

• Applications to buy a home rose 1% week over week
• Purchase apps were 21% higher than this time last year

The "Brief Pause" Is Over

Two things are pulling buyers back in at once. More homes are coming onto the market, and buyers are getting used to the steady stream of headlines from the war in Iran.

"After a brief pause, in part because of the elevated geopolitical uncertainties, potential homebuyers certainly appear to be moving forward this spring and taking advantage of the more favorable inventory conditions in most parts of the country," said Mike Fratantoni, the MBA's chief economist.

The takeaway: The investors and households who froze when oil spiked and stocks wobbled have stopped freezing.

That doesn't mean affordability is back. It means buyers have decided the news cycle isn't going to settle anytime soon, and homes that match their budget are too rare to wait on.

The Powell Wildcard

Mortgage rates have already started moving higher again to start this week, according to a separate survey from Mortgage News Daily.

The big swing factor was Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting, where the Fed held its benchmark rate steady in the 3.50% to 3.75% range with four officials dissenting - the most since 1992.

Chair Jerome Powell's press conference followed at 2:30 p.m. ET in what is expected to be his last meeting as chair before his term ends May 15.

Anything Powell says about the path of cuts, or about how the Fed is reading higher oil prices, can move mortgage rates within hours.

What To Watch

The 21% year-over-year jump in purchase applications is the cleanest sign yet that buyers are willing to live with a 6%-handle mortgage if they actually have homes to choose from.

Whether that momentum holds will depend on three things in the next two weeks: where the 30-year fixed settles, whether oil prices keep pressing higher, and the tone Powell sets on his way out the door.

For now, the buyers are starting to vote with their applications.