CEOs just turned bearish on the U.S. economy, but they're also planning to spend more - and those two things don't usually go together.
The Conference Board's latest survey shows confidence sliding to 47 while capex plans climb, hinting at what bosses are bracing for.
The Conference Board's CEO Confidence Index fell to 47 in Q2, down from 59 the quarter before, with anything below 50 meaning more CEOs see things getting worse than better.
Nearly half the 141 CEOs in the survey said the economy is already worse than six months ago - up from just 8% last quarter.
Roughly 40% expect conditions to keep sliding over the next six months, compared to 13% in Q1.
The two reasons they pointed to: supply chains and energy costs.
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About 37% of CEOs still plan to raise capital spending - a bigger share than the previous quarter.
When bosses think a recession is coming, the first thing they usually cut is capex, with new equipment, new factories, and new facilities all getting paused.
This time, they're doing the opposite, opening their wallets even as they brace for a downturn.
That spending doesn't look like growth-mode spending - it looks more like resilience-mode spending, locking in supply chains and energy contracts before the disruption hits.
The other piece: hiring plans barely moved, with the share planning to add workers ticking down and those expecting job cuts ticking up slightly.
That's the "low-hire, low-fire" pattern that's defined this labor market for over a year [NEEDS MANUAL VERIFICATION - source does not specify duration] - companies aren't bringing people on, but they're not letting them go either.
Workers tend to stay put in this kind of market, which keeps the unemployment rate low even as growth slows.
The gap between sentiment and spending is the real story. If capex plans hold through Q3, CEOs are spending to protect themselves rather than retreat.
If those plans get pulled back, that's the actual warning signal - so far, they haven't.
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