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Bundesbank Says German Commercial Property Prices Could Fall Again

Kalbir Talwar
Published Nov 12, 2026
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Summary:
  • Germany's central bank cautioned that commercial property values could slide further if rates rise or if stressed real estate funds are pushed to unload holdings.
  • Its annual financial stability report called price gains since 2024 "moderately positive," but not evidence of a broad rebound given thin deal flow centered on prime assets.
  • As of August, 13% of German mutual fund assets were in real estate funds, versus 21% at the end of 2023, while redemptions remain at a "high level."

What the report found

The Bundesbank said the modest price increase seen since 2024 is not a green light for a full recovery, because transactions have been sparse and clustered in higher quality buildings. It also noted that office and retail values have edged lower recently.

The central bank tied today's strain to the end of the ECB's negative rates in 2022, which lifted financing costs and raised return hurdles, after years when cheap money following the 2008 crisis pulled banks and investors into commercial property.

Liquidity pressure in funds

Several property funds have started capping withdrawals as they grapple with redemption demands, and the Bundesbank warned that persistent outflows could force discounted sales into a weak market. It added that recent limits on redemptions and the use of liquidity tools at multiple funds "point to increasing liquidity constraints."

By the figures, real estate funds represented 13% of German mutual fund assets as of August, compared with 21% at the end of 2023, and redemptions this year remain at a "high level."

Smart investors look for steady ways to gain an edge as markets evolve. We're hosting our first ever investor livestream on 11/17 to show you how to use ChatGPT and Claude to invest like a pro, hosted by Briefs Finance CEO Jaspreet Singh. Save your seat.

Why it matters for your portfolio

The warning links rate sensitivity, soft spot pricing in offices and retail, and mounting fund liquidity stress. On Thursday, Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG, a German property lender, said it expects "no short-term improvement in market conditions." The bottom line: ongoing outflows and higher financing costs could keep pressure on valuations and on vehicles exposed to German commercial property.

Using new tools thoughtfully can help investors make clearer, more confident choices. On 11/17, our CEO Jaspreet Singh goes live for our first ever investor livestream on how to use ChatGPT and Claude to invest like a pro. Register to join him.

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