Long-Dated Treasury Yields Slip After Nvidia Turmoil Sends Traders to Safe Havens

What moved markets today

With cash trading back after the holiday, buyers stepped into the long end and nudged prices up. That pulled the 30-year yield down by 2 basis points to 5.34% ahead of Thursday's auction. The 10-year yield dipped intraday and then held around 4.99%.

At the front of the curve, prices slipped and yields ticked up, compressing the spread. Two-year yields added 3 basis points to 4.77%, and five-year yields inched up 1 basis point to 4.83%.

Why Nvidia shook things up

Tension rose after a report stated Nvidia's directors are considering firing Jensen Huang in the wake of allegations that he had multiple extramarital affairs. A person familiar with the matter said the board is convening to determine his future, following his acknowledgment of a relationship with a woman whom US officials reportedly view as a Chinese spy. Nvidia fell about 10% in late trading.

That uncertainty hit the broader AI trade and nudged investors toward havens. Nasdaq futures were down close to 1%, while S&P 500 contracts slipped about 0.5%. As Carol Kong at Commonwealth Bank of Australia put it, "All these headlines on Jensen Huang are further sowing doubt about the AI story and triggering a small safe haven bid in Treasuries." Mark Cranfield of Markets Live added, "Aggressive traders will likely view any modest Nasdaq bounce as a window to re-set macro hedges. It may also revitalize the bid for bonds, which have been struggling this week."

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Strength in government bonds extended across the region in Asia hours, with Australian and New Zealand yields lower by at least 1 basis point.

The rates read

Traders stuck with a hawkish path for the Federal Reserve, keeping pressure on the short end. Interest-rate swaps imply odds of a quarter-point increase at the December meeting after October's inflation gauge came in firm and officials toughened their tone. Governor Christopher Waller said a half percentage point move in December may be needed.

Nomura's Andrew Ticehurst highlighted how much is now embedded in pricing: "It's very interesting to see the best part of 30 basis points priced for the next Fed meeting, the market is clearly considering the risk of a 50-basis-point hike in December."

Where this leaves your portfolio

In plain English: stress around a key AI bellwether met stickier rate expectations, and the result was a bid for safety at the long end and a flatter curve. For equity risk, watch how AI-linked sentiment spills into index futures; for bonds, note that higher short-end yields ride on a still-hawkish Fed path, while any renewed haven demand can support duration.

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