What happened
Big-name outlets are weaving prediction-market data into midterm coverage as Nov. 3 approaches, with CNN, CBS News, Dow Jones and CNBC tapping feeds from Kalshi and Polymarket to show what traders think about outcomes from House control to the closely fought Texas Senate contest.
Those numbers will not drive on-air calls on election night at some networks. CNN said odds will not be shown on its Magic Wall or referenced on air that evening, preferring to focus on results as they arrive. "Prediction markets offer just one real-time measurement of public sentiment to complement more in-depth reporting, polling and analysis," a CNN spokesperson said. "CNN has strict editorial guidelines around which markets to utilize in our coverage, and only use in tandem with other data sources to give the full context of any story."
Who is in and what the deals look like
Prediction platforms have grown quickly over the past year on the back of sports betting, with a Bloomberg analysis of Dune data tallying a Bloomberg review of Dune data counts roughly $1.5 billion in trades on Kalshi and Polymarket. Media companies see a fresh revenue stream Media firms view this as a new income source while traditional television advertising and audiences continue to plunge, though there is little public information about the economics of these arrangements.
Some partnerships come with boundaries. Earlier this year, Fox Corp. entered into an agreement with Kalshi to distribute forecasts on its platforms, but the Fox News division said its decision desk will call races on Nov. 3 using its own polling unit and that the Kalshi deal "excludes any political coverage." CNN, too, maintains a partnership with Kalshi. On a recent edition of The Odds, CNN anchor Kate Bolduan said, "All the smart money" favors Democrats capturing the House majority and possibly winning the Senate, with chief data analyst Harry Enten citing a Kalshi market that pointed to a Democratic sweep. According to a person familiar with the arrangements, CNN does not have equity in Kalshi, its editorial segments do not include affiliate links, and the network earns no revenue from customer acquisition, trades, or contracts executed by users.
Skydance Corp.'s CBS News named Kalshi its prediction-market sponsor and said it will use the data in midterms coverage. It also brought in DraftKings Inc. as the sponsor for election night coverage at its local stations, but said it will not air DraftKings' prediction odds in newscasts. The Wall Street Journal's homepage features a regular "Featured Prediction Market," and a recent entry showed Democrat James Talarico as a favorite in the Texas Senate race. A footnote notes Polymarket has a commercial relationship with Dow Jones, the Journal's parent, and that editors choose which data to use.
CNBC hosted a Washington conference earlier this month called Trading the Midterms, sponsored by Kalshi, which included an interview with Kalshi's head of research. Earlier this month, CNBC ran a Washington event titled Trading the Midterms, sponsored by Kalshi, featuring an interview with Kalshi's head of research. CNBC says it stages more than 60 events annually and clearly labels corporate sponsors. According to the network, CNBC puts on more than 60 events annually and plainly labels corporate sponsors. The network also adds a disclosure to its prediction-market stories stating, "CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment." It also appends a disclosure to prediction-market coverage that reads, "CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment."
Other data ties are emerging. The Associated Press said Kalshi licenses its elections data as a customer. Bloomberg LP, the parent of Bloomberg News, includes prediction-market data as part of a broader offering for clients.
Several outlets declined to comment on deal terms, and Polymarket also declined to comment. A Kalshi spokesperson compared the company to third-party data providers. "Our partners have full control over what and how they report, and we don't tell them which markets to cite," said Dani Lever.
New sources of market insight remind investors to keep exploring better tools for edge. We're hosting our first ever investor livestream on 11/17 to show you how to use ChatGPT and Claude to invest like a pro, hosted by Briefs Finance CEO Jaspreet Singh. Save your seat.
"Kalshi is a uniquely useful form of data because it's backed by money on the line, and a growing body of independent analysis shows that they're well calibrated."
Scrutiny, lawsuits and the accuracy debate
The expansion comes with legal and reputational baggage. Lawsuits filed by more than a dozen states claim prediction-market operators are running illegal gambling operations, and the young industry has grappled with insider trading and market manipulation. Lawsuits from more than a dozen states allege prediction-market operators are running illegal gambling, and the nascent sector has faced insider trading and manipulation concerns.
Polymarket said this week it is looking into suspicious trading activity tied to the Israeli elections. Polymarket said this week it is probing suspicious trading tied to the Israeli elections.
Media critics see a credibility risk. "There's a temptation to partner with these firms because they appear data-driven - it's a body of information," said Alison Taylor, an associate professor at New York University Stern School of Business. "But the mainstream media's already got a problem with legitimacy and lack of trust."
Supporters argue the crowd can sometimes outguess polls. Still, markets miss. They gave Flávio Bolsonaro strong odds in Brazil's recent presidential contest, but Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won. NewsNation's Chris Stirewalt, formerly a politics editor at Fox News, says he avoids odds entirely and calls them "lagging indicators, not leading indicators."
Researchers are also probing whether odds shape voting behavior. A Brennan Center for Justice study found that when prediction markets place a candidate at 67 percent or higher, voters are more inclined to believe that candidate will win; at around 33 percent, odds can dissuade voters from seeing a candidate as electable. "You can have turnout effects where people say, 'What's the point of voting because my candidate is going to lose?'" said Joshua Mitts, a Columbia Law School professor who specializes in capital markets trading.
What this means for your portfolio
For investors exposed to media or betting-adjacent platforms, these tie-ups look like a new top-line lever as legacy TV ad dollars fade, but they come with legal and headline risk. Industry economics remain opaque, and the sector is still wrestling with market integrity questions. As Jordan Bender of Citizens Capital Markets and Advisory put it, "We're seeing this whole cycle starts over again," with companies spending heavily for name recognition and customer acquisition.
The bottom line: prediction data may enrich coverage, but courts, credibility concerns and accuracy debates are still stress testing the model. If you own the companies mentioned, watch how disclosures are handled, whether odds are kept off-air during key moments, and how platforms respond to suspicious trading.
Smart investors combine diverse signals with the right approach to improve decision making. On 11/17, our CEO Jaspreet Singh goes live for our first ever investor livestream on how to use ChatGPT and Claude to invest like a pro. Register to join him.
