Eisman's positioning and why he is cautious on AI
Steve Eisman thinks the AI trade is getting close to a tipping point, but he is not ready to bet directly against it. On CNBC's Squawk Box Thursday, he said, "I've gotten much more conservative in my own portfolio. We have shorted against the box a whole bunch of our positions, so that our risk is much, much, much lower. But I'm not, like, net short any."
His biggest worry is with frontier algorithm models. He argues they are leaning on fear about their technology to push for rules that box out cheaper rivals and, in the process, mask softening fundamentals. He noted that prominent tech leaders have been sounding similar alarms. Even so, he said it is "impossible" to cordon off tech from the wider equity market or the economy, leaving him reluctant to put on an outright short.
The Anthropic read: missing revenue, weaker efficiency
Eisman said sections of Anthropic's recently filed S-1 looked "extremely negative," pointing out that the company left its latest revenue figure blank. He believes that missing number will show a notable slowdown from the prior quarter and said other line items point to capital efficiency problems.
He referenced analysis indicating the revenue-to-equipment-expense ratio was 2.08 during the second quarter, dropping to 1.7 in the third - an inflection he described as notable. He also noted the filing did not include many forward metrics that would clarify the company's near term finances.
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Google's wobble and what the market is parsing
"So much of the market is on the other side, and it's still reading tea leaves. I think we're getting closer. I think the numbers from Google scared people," Eisman said.
Alphabet's stock fell after Wednesday's earnings, with weakness in its main ads unit as AI queries increasingly substitute for standard search across its products. Alphabet Class A was trading at 285.05, down 39.84, or 12.26 percent, at 12:26 PM EDT.
Executives said Wednesday they were testing options for how to handle the shift. "It's worth noting the strong growth in AI mode queries had an impact because of the lower monetization we are seeing in AI mode," said Philipp Schindler, Google's chief business officer. "Our ad experiments have shown promising results."
What this means for your portfolio
Eisman has dialed down exposure without flipping to a net short, and his focus is on fundamentals catching up to the AI narrative. Watch for whether missing revenue shows up as a slowdown, whether efficiency metrics keep sliding, and how ad monetization evolves as AI queries rise. Those are the pressure points he is watching - and the ones most likely to move your tech allocations.
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