Abacus Data's latest snapshot has the remain side at 68%, a four-point climb from 64% a month earlier. Backing to launch a legal path that could eventually lead to separation was steady at 24%, and the portion of people undecided or not intending to vote slipped to 8% from 12% in the Oct. 7-13 fielding.
On Monday, Albertans will decide whether to remain in Canada or to begin a legal process that would set up a second, binding referendum on secession. The stakes are large for energy: Alberta, home to about 5 million people, is the country's biggest oil producer, turning out over 4 million barrels per day, with the majority shipped to the US.
Speaking in Edmonton on Friday night, Prime Minister Mark Carney pressed voters to oppose separation, cautioning that a vote against Canada would usher in "years of deep uncertainty and lost opportunities." He added that unity matters more in a world that is increasingly divided.
He framed the project as a reason to vote remain, contending it would lessen Alberta's dependence on the US, unlock new export destinations, and create more than 140,000 jobs. He argued that Canada offers a chance to build bigger, faster, and better than Alberta could on its own, stressing that the contest isn't over and that turnout will decide it.
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The vote will shape the outlook for Alberta's oil patch and its access to markets. A stronger remain showing lines up with Ottawa's support for Pacific Link, which Carney says aims to diversify exports beyond the US and add jobs. In plain English: clarity on policy and added pipeline capacity are key inputs for valuing Canadian energy producers, and Monday's result steers both.
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