Axa management has been weighing the future of its long standing distribution arrangement with Monte Paschi after recent moves in Italy boosted the chance of an Intesa Sanpaolo takeover, according to people familiar with the discussions. Spokespeople for Axa and Monte Paschi said they had no comment.
The potential unwind underscores how shifting owners and alliances in Italy's financial sector ripple outward. Bloomberg has previously reported that a domestic distribution tie between Amundi, Credit Agricole SA's asset manager, and UniCredit could be vulnerable as interests diverge over how the consolidation wave should unfold.
Monte Paschi CEO Luigi Lovaglio sought to fend off Intesa by proposing acquisitions of Banco BPM SpA and Banca Generali SpA, but several key investors publicly opposed his plan. Given that opposition, his chances of securing shareholder approval later this month to pursue those deals appear low.
If Intesa does clinch Monte Paschi, it intends to divest a significant slice to Unipol Gruppo SpA, a setup that would likely put Unipol in the running for the bank's valuable distribution lines. Even without a sale, the Axa pact could still be challenged. Lovaglio has described the Banca Generali transaction as a first step toward a broader industrial tie with its parent, Assicurazioni Generali SpA, and Generali CEO Philippe Donnet has voiced similar openness. Because it bought competitor Mediobanca last year, Monte Paschi now owns a sizable holding in Generali.
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Axa Chief Executive Officer Thomas Buberl has called the Monte Paschi agreement of "great importance." On a September analyst call, Patrick Cohen, who leads European Markets and Health at Axa, said the firm plans to assess the agreement over the next few months and is prepared for every possible outcome. He also noted that two relatively recent Italian deals - Gruppo Nobis and Prima Assicurazioni - have lowered Axa's reliance on the bank partnership.
Cohen said ending the pact would trim less than 2% of the insurer's European Life and Health earnings. If the agreement isn't extended next year, Axa would receive a monetary payment, financed in part by its shareholdings in the Monte Paschi joint ventures, people with knowledge of the situation said. The relationship dates to 2007, was renewed a decade later, and comprises a bancassurance deal plus a JV covering life, non life, and pension offerings that remains in place until 2027.
If distribution rights shift, expect Italy's bancassurance map to be redrawn, with Unipol positioned to compete if Intesa takes control. Axa has a buffer: it has been investing locally, including agreeing in 2007 to purchase the Montepaschi Vita stake for EU1.15 Billion, striking a 2024 agreement for an upfront €423M acquisition of Nobis in Italy, and a 2025 move to acquire 51% of Prima for a consideration of €500M. The bottom line: Axa signaled its earnings hit would be small, but the outcome still matters for which insurers gain access to Italian bank customers and how distribution economics are split in the next leg of consolidation.
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