Benchmark hot-rolled coil has risen 52 percent over the past year to 1,255 dollars a short ton, per Fastmarkets, a level last reached in May 2022. The US premium over global markets is widening, with domestic prices now about two thirds higher than in Europe and nearly triple China, which continues to export near-record volumes despite pushback from trading partners.
Trade rules are doing a lot of the lifting.
The US is still a net importer, but overseas deliveries have dropped sharply this year. The American Iron and Steel Institute says finished-steel imports fell 14 percent to around 13 million tons in the first three quarters of 2026, cutting import share of the domestic market to 16 percent from 19 percent a year earlier.
With the midterms approaching, inflation continues to pose a serious problem for Trump's Republican Party, and the steel rally highlights how tariffs and the push to revive US steelmaking benefit domestic mills and steelworkers while burdening manufacturers, builders and data center developers.
Expect supply to tighten as mills pause for routine maintenance. Fastmarkets projects that in the September-to-December window, over 1 million tons of output will be taken offline. Richard Bourke of Bloomberg Intelligence says ferrous scrap - a key input - is getting pricier earlier than usual into year-end, and that 2027 contract talks "so far are favoring mills, and are likely to be at lower discounts than recent years."
American producers including Nucor Corp., Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. and Steel Dynamics Inc. are benefiting from stronger pricing and less foreign competition. Nucor, the top US producer, has watched its stock rise over 50 percent this year, and analysts expect upcoming third quarter results to show higher sales and profits.
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Steel stocks briefly dipped after Trump revealed plans last month for a 15 billion dollar Mesabi Metallics plant in Iowa that aims to deliver 10 million tons of steel per year, with initial production targeted near the end of the decade.
Tariffs are also straining ties with Canada. Trump's 50 percent levies on foreign steel are roiling commerce with Canadian suppliers. Cleveland-Cliffs stated last month that it will idle some operations indefinitely at its Canadian unit Stelco, with the impact potentially reaching as many as 500 workers, prompting the Canadian government to threaten legal action over employment commitments tied to Cleveland-Cliffs' 2024 acquisition of Stelco for 3.4 billion Canadian dollars, or 2.4 billion US dollars.
Rising domestic prices are lifting revenue for US steelmakers while pushing up costs for steel-heavy sectors. With maintenance curbing output, scrap getting more expensive, and 2027 contracts tilting toward mills, pricing power sits with producers for now. Watch third quarter results and input trends to gauge how much of the price strength sticks and where margins land.
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