On CNBC's Squawk Box on Oct. 13, 2026, Paul Tudor Jones laid out his playbook for energy. "I am long oil... bullish oil...I think it can rally another $20 or $25 bucks," said the Tudor Investment founder and chief investment officer. He tied his bet to the U.S.-Iran war, adding, "If something to ameliorate the situation was going to happen, it would have happened already before the midterms." In his view, resolving the conflict ahead of the U.S. midterm elections is unlikely.
Crude jumped in March after the war began on Feb. 28, hit a peak in early April, then slid below $70 per barrel in June. Prices turned back up in July as fighting in the Middle East intensified and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil chokepoint, lingered. Oil touched nearly $106 a barrel in September before easing.
As of Tuesday morning, U.S. crude futures hovered near $92.50. Another $20 to $25 on top of that would put prices above this year's earlier closing high just under $113.
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Jones said if crude climbs by that magnitude, the stock market would "absolutely totally hate it." Even so, earlier in the year equities held up better than many expected. After the war's start on Feb. 28, the S&P 500's late-March low was a drop of a little more than 7%, a smaller hit than some anticipated given oil's surge. He also flagged another headwind: 2027 could be challenging as investors absorb more shares from megacap tech IPOs, citing Anthropic and OpenAI.
Jones doesn't expect a breakthrough on the conflict before voters head to the polls, but he thinks President Donald Trump will try to pursue peace after the election. "I assume the president has a plan post-election," he said. "I assume he has a plan because, clearly, what's going on is untenable. It's not sustainable, I don't think, in the long-run." If crude does tack on another $20 to $25 and stocks bristle at it, investors may be staring at a bumpier ride into 2027 as new offerings like Anthropic and OpenAI add to equity supply.
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