Why the IPO well is running low
Only a few years back, Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Riyadh were where global bankers jetted in to win mandates as listings boomed, cushioning a slump in London, Hong Kong and New York. That tide has turned. After a strong post-pandemic run, IPO volumes in the Gulf began easing last year and, in 2026 to date, have dropped below $1.1 billion. A grinding regional war has added uncertainty around launch windows, even with a hefty pipeline in the wings.
At the same time, there is a very different surge elsewhere in the region's deal machine. Transactions involving Gulf state-backed investors jumped by almost 200% in the first half to roughly $300 billion, spurring global banks to bulk up their M&A benches even as equity capital markets cool.
Where the action moved
The slowdown is pushing banks to fish in new waters. HSBC has leaned into Turkey's market for follow-on offerings, with secondary sales there reaching $1.6 billion this year, almost double last year's take. With seven transactions, the firm leads the local rankings, bringing in an aggregate $552 million, compared with two deals totaling $260 million a year ago.
EFG Hermes, a frequent fixture among leading Gulf ECM advisers, is busy across the border. It is working on multiple Egyptian IPOs, including a possible Cairo listing of fintech unicorn MNT-Halan's domestic business alongside Citigroup Inc. The bank is also assisting with offerings for state-affiliated firms such as Banque du Caire SAE and Misr Life Insurance, and it advised on a small food retailer's listing in January that has climbed nearly 150% since debut.
Who is winning mandates now
HSBC remains a front-runner in Gulf ECM, but like many peers it has not completed a Gulf IPO this year. Even so, it is far from idle. Mohammed Fannouch, the regional co-head for capital markets and advisory at HSBC, said the bank has more than 50 active assignments that cover M&A and equity work in Turkey as well as the Middle East and North Africa.
Dubai-based Emirates NBD Bank PJSC is also looking outward. It has grown its investment-banking footprint in India in recent months and acquired a majority stake in RBL Bank. The lender is a regular arranger of international bonds in Turkey and aims to build an equity presence there.
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Together with First Abu Dhabi Bank PJSC, it is helping arrange Airtel Money's London listing. Hitesh Asarpota, ENBD Capital's chief executive officer, noted that the pickup in cross-border activity highlights issuers outside the Gulf tapping the Middle East's deep liquidity, while investors from the region seek pathways into global markets.
State-backed lenders are finding business through tighter government ties too. Cooperation between Abu Dhabi and Uzbekistan has increased via several partnership investments, and Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC most recently served as a book-runner on the London-Tashkent dual listing for Uzbekistan's National Investment Fund.
What it means for your money
Two datapoints frame the shift. First, the Gulf has raised less from IPOs this year than sub-Saharan Africa's $1.37 billion tally. Second, that lead will extend when Dangote Petroleum Refinery completes what is set to be the continent's biggest-ever IPO at a minimum of $1.6 billion.
Inside the Gulf, banks are still signing work - EFG Hermes' Christopher Laing expects "lots of new business in the Gulf," noting fresh Saudi mandates - but many offerings look more likely to launch next year. In the meantime, fee pools are evolving: a few years back, governments sold stakes in prized assets to deepen markets, whereas in the last two months a few banks have focused instead on two take-private transactions.
For everyday investors, the takeaway is straightforward: IPO supply in the Gulf is thinner right now, so banks are hunting in places where issuance and secondary placements are open for business. That helps explain why Egypt and Turkey are suddenly back on the itinerary, and why the next big pop in EM equities might come from Cairo or Lagos before it shows up in Dubai.
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