A razor-thin result on Sunday put the center-left opposition ahead by three seats, and traders read that narrow edge as reducing the odds of fresh taxes aimed at banks. Swedbank AB jumped up to 2.7% in Stockholm, the largest single-session gain it has posted since June. Svenska Handelsbanken AB and SEB AB both advanced by 1.5%.
Barclays analyst Namita Samtani said the outcome could calm worries about a possible windfall tax on lenders and plans to bolster SBAB, the state-owned lender. She added that with only a three-seat lead, it may be harder for the Social Democrats to push those measures through.
Nordea Bank Abp's Andreas Håkansson said investors now view the chance of a new bank levy as lower after Sunday's vote, noting that the eventual shape of parliament is the key variable. He also pointed out that even with a Social Democrat-led government, the path to a bank tax looks narrow because left-leaning parties would still need backing elsewhere in parliament to pass fiscal plans.
"If you remove one of the uncertainty factors hanging over the Swedish banks, I don't think it's surprising that the shares are performing strongly," the Nordea analyst said.
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With the tally possibly extending to Thursday and late votes still in play, politics may stay noisy for a few days. But Håkansson said that taking the tax risk down a notch lets investors refocus on the core story: higher interest rates are lifting net interest income, and a better economic backdrop is helping day-to-day banking activity.
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