Many Firms That Paid Tariffs Say More Increases Are Coming, Fed Poll Shows

The Increases Aren't Over

It turns out tariffs have a long tail.

A new New York Fed report, published July 8, 2026, finds that companies are still repricing more than a year after the first tariff actions.

The report draws on the Fed's May 2026 Regional Business Surveys, which asked companies about their experience with a year of fast-moving trade policy. That stretch included broad new tariffs and a Supreme Court ruling that reshaped the tariff rules.

Some are looking at an increase that could come half a year or more down the road.

For a large share, the timing is closer. Roughly 30 percent of service businesses and nearly 40 percent of manufacturers plan another increase within six months.

Looking further out, about 16 percent of services and 7 percent of manufacturers said their next increase would come beyond the six-month mark.

Who Bears the Cost

The reason so many companies are still repricing comes down to who actually pays the tariffs.

Exposure to imports is widespread. Two-thirds of service companies and almost all manufacturers bring in at least some inputs from abroad.

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Among importers, 40 percent of service businesses and 70 percent of manufacturers paid tariffs directly during the previous twelve months. Many others paid more because their suppliers passed along tariff costs.

Among the direct payers, the experience varies. Only 3 percent of service businesses and 6 percent of producers called the tariff effect on their costs minor. Roughly 30 percent of service businesses and 20 percent of manufacturers fully offset the tariffs with higher prices and need no further action.

Another 20 percent of service businesses and 30 percent of producers paid tariffs but have no plans for more increases. Add those three groups together, and just over half of tariff-paying firms are done with tariff-related price increases. The rest are still working their way through repricing.

Why the Increases Drag On

Economists and policymakers often expect tariff price effects to show up as a one-time adjustment. The report argues that adjustment can stretch out when many companies spread increases over long periods and tariffs keep changing.

Businesses gave two main reasons for the delays. Some have fixed-price contracts that prevent changes until they expire.

Others are using what the authors call a trickle-up strategy - slow, repeated increases designed to avoid shocking customers.

Uncertainty plays a role, too. With rate changes, exemptions, and other countries' responses still up in the air, many firms choose cautious, gradual price moves.

The authors also note that analysts cannot tell whether companies are reacting to one tariff action or to the full series of changes over the past year.

Research cited in the report finds that tariffs feed into consumer prices gradually, building over most of a year instead of all at once. That suggests tariff-related inflation may persist longer than the one-time adjustment story implies.

A Year of Repricing So Far

The May surveys capture how far the process had moved after roughly a year of trade-policy shifts. The Supreme Court ruling that reshaped the tariff rules, mentioned in the report, added another layer of uncertainty, and businesses have had to respond while the details of exemptions and foreign retaliation remained unsettled. That backdrop helps explain why many firms are still staging increases rather than making one large jump.

What It Means for Your Money

The bottom line: For investors, the timing is the story. Tariff-related inflation may keep showing up in economic data for months, and inflation that lingers tends to shape what the Fed does next.

If companies follow through on their plans, the effects are likely to show up in your monthly bills and in the market's next moves.

The companies answering the Fed's surveys are essentially telling you the increases are already on the way.

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