On the sidelines of the IMF's annual gathering in Bangkok, Miliband told Sky News that UK security, trade and values all point to building a closer partnership with the EU. He welcomed Prime Minister Andy Burnham's move last month to reopen the conversation on Europe, including a potential new deal with Brussels and even the prospect of rejoining. Under Labour, relations with the EU have been deepening, even as ministers pursue trade agreements with India and the Gulf Cooperation Council - Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Burnham recently argued the UK could "go all the way" back in, which would mean dropping Labour's current pledge not to seek single market or customs union membership, or to accept freedom of movement.
Ten years after the referendum that set Brexit in motion, Bloomberg Economics estimates the UK economy is 2.5% smaller than it otherwise would be, with about £30 billion (or $39.7 billion) in tax revenue forgone each year. Polls suggest that if the question were asked again today, more voters would choose to be inside the EU, even as many remain firmly opposed.
Earlier Wednesday, Miliband said he will shortly name a climate envoy "from a security background," arguing climate change is a national security risk for the UK. Speaking at a Rockefeller Foundation session about foreign aid, he urged a "new deal" for developing countries and observed that their debt load is heavier than it was 25 years ago, even after the 2005 debt jubilee canceled $100 billion.
He noted that UK aid fell from 0.7% of GDP to 0.3% since 2021, and said 0.2 percentage points of that reduction were agreed under a previous Labour government in which he served. He said the shift reflects "the fiscal constraints we face," noting that national debt is higher than at any time in 60 years and that the cost of borrowing has recently moved back to 1998 levels. Miliband, who is currently the first foreign secretary to hold the UK governor seat at the World Bank, pressed for a much larger role for private capital and urged the World Bank to increase its borrowing. He also criticized private-sector creditors to the governments of developing countries for delaying restructurings, adding, "We've got to improve the debt architecture in the longer term, so we don't find ourselves in this position again, including ensuring that debt restructuring can't be blocked by a single private lender."
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A tighter UK-EU setup would influence trade frictions and worker mobility, which feed into growth, inflation and, ultimately, everyday prices. The rough Brexit tab here - a 2.5% GDP hit and about £30 billion a year less in tax revenue - helps explain why the fiscal room feels cramped. Layer on higher borrowing costs and a push to revamp how poorer countries restructure debt, and you get policy choices that could sway the pound, gilt yields and the broader UK economy.
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