Three months ago, bond traders bet on two Fed rate cuts in 2026. Now they bet on a hike by March. Oil and the Iran war flipped the script.
The 30-year Treasury yield - the rate the U.S. pays on its longest bonds - just topped 5%. That range has not been normal since before the 2008 crash.
Treasuries had their worst week in a year. Oil spiked as the Strait of Hormuz standoff dragged on. Hot inflation data piled on top.
The same fear drove all of it: prices are climbing, and the Fed may need to hike instead of cut.
The 10-year yield rose to 4.59%, up a quarter point in one week. The 2-year hit 4.07%, its highest since early 2025.
The Group of Seven finance chiefs will talk about the bond rout when they meet this week.
"This price action is concerning for two reasons," said Priya Misra, a portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management. "Long-end rates are rising globally which tend to feed on each other, and the prospect of Fed hikes is coming into the market narrative."
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The U.S. sold 30-year bonds last week at a 5% yield. That was the first time since 2007.
Even at that rate, demand was weak. The 3-year and 10-year sales were soft too.
The read: bond buyers want a much fatter payoff to lend to the U.S. for the long haul.
Think of it like a landlord hiking rent after a bad year. The risk feels higher, so the price goes up.
WisdomTree's Kevin Flanagan says the next CPI report could show 4% yearly inflation. That would be the most since 2023, up from 3.8% in April.
Fed Governor Michael Barr called inflation the "overwhelming" risk to the economy. Chicago Fed boss Austan Goolsbee said price pressure may even point to an overheating economy.
In the latest JPMorgan client survey, short bets against Treasuries were the heaviest in 13 weeks.
The Fed posts notes from its April meeting on May 20, which will show how many on the board agreed with the dissenters who pushed back on cuts.
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh just took the helm. The Senate confirmed him on May 13 in a 54-45 vote. Traders had bet he would push for cuts, but last week's slump makes that look shaky.
Higher long-term yields push up mortgage rates, car loans, and corporate debt. The 30-year mortgage rate hit 6.34% last week, with the refinance rate at 6.54%.
U.S. bonds are now in the red for 2026, after sitting up almost 2% at the end of February. That is a sharp swing in a short window.
The 30-year auction at 5% says bond buyers think the era of cheap money is over.
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