Core inflation - which excludes fresh food - reached 2.1% in September, up from 1.7% in August and in line with a Reuters poll. Headline inflation matched that 2.1% print, while the BOJ's preferred "core-core" measure that also removes energy edged up to 2.4%.
Goods inflation ticked up to 2.8% from 2.6% despite a 20.6% year over year drop in rice prices. Services inflation inched higher too, from 1.2% to 1.5%, and consumer energy prices fell 0.6% in the month.
Abhijit Surya, Capital Economics' senior APAC economist, remarked, "That acceleration was noteworthy, not least because it occurred despite a sharp slowdown in fresh food inflation and continued energy deflation," He added, "One reason may be that the indirect effects of the energy shock are continuing to feed through, with inflation in 'other industrial products' rising to a 13-month high of 3.9%."
Government data pointed to price gains in durable goods and higher public utility charges as key contributors. With underlying inflation back above the BOJ's 2% target, Surya said the case for more tightening "remains on solid ground," and he expects another rate increase in December.
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The BOJ's September move raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, the highest in about 30 years, as it normalizes after decades of reflation efforts. On Wednesday, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama told lawmakers, according to reports, that Japan was "on the cusp of shifting to a period of sustained inflation driven by rising wages," while noting that higher import costs are also lifting prices.
Japan's oil bill has been climbing as purchases shift toward costlier U.S. supplies and away from Middle Eastern barrels amid the Iranian conflict, with a weaker yen further inflating costs. Reuters reported that, in response to a parliamentary query on a potential clash between the government's tax cut plan and BOJ rate increases, the answer was: "I see no gap between the view of the government and that of the BOJ."
Markets took a breather. On Friday, the Nikkei 225 fell 1.62%, and the yen firmed to 156.15 per dollar. Energy prices for households have mostly eased this year despite the Iran war, helped by subsidies from the Takaichi administration.
Inflation is running at or above 2% on key measures, the policy rate sits at 1.25%, and a December hike is in play. That mix can lift bank margins while pressuring rate sensitive names, even as utility charges and durable goods prices keep demand signals mixed. Meanwhile, lawmakers have begun discussing legislation that would set the consumption tax on food at 1% instead of 8% for two years and introduce income-based support payments for workers, a combination that could buffer households and influence spending.
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