What the Pentagon just put on the table
The Pentagon said Thursday it intends to procure a minimum of 850 more Lockheed Martin F-35s, a move that would mark the program's largest contract in its roughly 25-year run if it closes. The package stretches beyond aircraft, adding buying of early spare parts and modification kits, plus 10 years of support for the worldwide fleet. No dollar amount was provided.
The draft arrangement calls for building 156 jets annually over 10 years. That is a notable shift from the program's typical three-year contracting blocks. Lockheed, which beat Boeing to the fighter contract 25 years ago this month, would also self fund "at least $7 billion in initiatives that support" the program.
Why structure it this way
Pentagon officials said the framework is meant to stabilize pricing, keep parts flowing, and boost reliability as threats evolve, including from artificial intelligence and drones.
Lockheed has long pushed for a bigger, longer deal because it underpins steady orders for the prime and hundreds of suppliers, subject to yearly appropriations. CEO Jim Taiclet said the government's "transformative approach" gives the company the certainty to invest to expand capacity, improve efficiency, and toughen the supply chain. The company added that contract terms, pricing, and schedules will be negotiated in the coming months before a formal award.
The program's scorecard and the politics around it
The F-35 comes in three versions and runs about $100 million per jet. More than 1,375 aircraft are flying with militaries worldwide, mostly with the US. Total flight hours have now surpassed one million. The fighter has also flown many missions during the war with Iran.
Performance remains mixed. The program has wrestled with low mission capable rates and major delays to a combined software and hardware refresh known as TR3. Since late 2023, total program costs have climbed around $51 billion, roughly 10 percent, driven by upgrades to software, improvements in readiness, added spare parts, and enhanced engine power.
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The Air Force, in a report to lawmakers last Friday on its long range fighter plans, said the F-35 "is the foundation of the Air Force's fighter force structure." That report, obtained by Bloomberg News, also said Lockheed "continues to produce and modernize F-35s for the Air Force but is currently delivering aircraft with significant combat system gaps."
Strategic backdrop and who else is building what
Many US fourth generation fighters, such as F-15s and F-16s, have been flying for decades and are slated to retire before next generation F-47 and F/A-XX jets enter production. Boeing was tapped to build both of those fighters, while Northrop Grumman is producing the B-21 Raider bomber. Washington also approved similar long horizon deals this year to ramp up output of key munitions like air defense interceptors.
The prospective award underscores renewed backing for the F-35 after it drew sharp critiques during Donald Trump's presidency. In late 2024, Elon Musk said "some idiots are still building manned fighter jets like the F-35." The next few weeks bring US midterm elections that could hand Democrats control of Congress, which may shift spending priorities as new members write budgets.
What this means for your portfolio
A 10 year production cadence at 156 jets a year would create clearer visibility across the F-35 supply chain, from airframes to spares and sustainment. Lockheed's plan to put at least $7 billion of its own capital to work signals capacity and efficiency investments that could flow to subcontractors. With more than 1,375 jets already in service, any change in readiness, upgrade timelines like TR3, or total program costs can ripple through contractors and logistics providers, while final terms, pricing, and the ultimate size of the award still depend on upcoming negotiations and future congressional funding.
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