Carrefour pared back its full-year profit targets and flagged "an unprecedented situation in France," noting that "consumption trends and operating conditions in France are facing a deterioration." The stock sank to the bottom of the Stoxx 600 and was last quoted at 14.11 euros, down 2.19 euros, or 13.47%, at 4:36 PM CEST.
French cities have seen huge turnouts in recent days, with hundreds of thousands demonstrating over public services and living costs. While most demonstrations were calm, a subset over the weekend ransacked stores, torched city halls, and assaulted police officers. Carrefour said the unrest is disrupting store operations and adding strain to shoppers' budgets already hit by higher energy costs, with the key holiday shopping period only weeks away.
Carrefour now projects operating margin growth of 0 to 15 basis points, scaled back from a prior expectation of a 25 basis point increase. It expects adjusted earnings per share to be flat to slightly higher, compared with a prior outlook for high single-digit growth, and it now forecasts free cash flow to dip slightly after earlier signaling modest growth. The company also cut its 2026 forecast.
Third quarter like for like sales at constant exchange rates rose 2.3%, matching FactSet expectations and running a bit ahead of first half growth. France brought in 11.9 billion euros in sales, a little over half of total revenue, with French sales up 1.2% in the quarter.
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Shares were last down 14%, yet Carrefour remains up roughly 2.5% for the year, beating the CAC 40, which has fallen nearly 4% in that timeframe. The CAC 40 edged up 0.2% early Wednesday, helped by a strong report from EssilorLuxottica.
The bottom line: unrest is adding a fresh headwind to a low margin retailer right before holiday selling season. Watch how sustained the disruption is, how fast energy pressures ease, and whether guidance resets draw a line under estimates or signal more to come.
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