India weighed telling power producers to mix foreign coal with local grades to ease a fuel squeeze, according to people familiar with the talks. With import prices elevated and a softer rupee inflating the bill, that idea is now off the table.
Instead, officials asked state-owned Coal India Ltd. to step up production and the railway to move fuel to plants on time. The power ministry and Coal India did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
A weak monsoon kept heat lingering past summer, driving up electricity demand for cooling and irrigation, and consequently coal reserves fell to their lowest level in nearly five years. Below-normal rainfall also reduced hydropower generation, which kept coal plants running harder and drew down their inventories.
By Oct. 17, nearly half of India's power stations held critical fuel levels - less than one quarter of required stock - power ministry data show. The electricity deficit surged in September, the worst shortages for that month in almost a decade.
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In earlier crunches, the government dealt with shortages by directing plants to accept imports to supplement domestic supply. That path is harder now, with benchmark thermal coal at a three-year high, according to Bloomberg data, and higher oil prices already lifting the national energy bill.
Cooling weather could help on the demand side. Officials expect power consumption to slow as reserves are rebuilt, with mean temperatures seen edging down over the next two weeks, though still above the 30-year norm, per the European Centre for Medium Term Forecasting. Even with firm October demand, stock drawdowns have eased: in the first 17 days of the month, domestic coal plants' average daily reduction was about 48,000 tons, roughly one fifth of last month's pace, based on Bloomberg calculations using power ministry data.
Key signposts for energy exposure: the policy focus on Coal India's output and rail transport, coal's three-year-high benchmark pricing, the weaker rupee's impact on import costs, and the government's expectation that cooler weather will slow demand as inventories are replenished. Inventory depletion has already decelerated to about 48,000 tons per day in early October, a fifth of September's rate.
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