On growth, the IMF sees the economy expanding about 2.25% this year and next. Chalk argued Colombia can do better, saying, "The country's potential is way more than that" and "The country should be growing much faster."
Chalk said the primary balance in 2025 amounts to a deficit of roughly 3.5% of GDP. Public debt is around 60% of output and still increasing.
After Finance Minister Miguel Gómez called the situation the worst in Colombia's history, President Abelardo de la Espriella's administration entered talks with the IMF over potential support. The Fund has been discussing "options and strategies" with officials, and in early November a team will come to deepen the exploratory dialogue, covering an Article IV consultation along with potential instruments that could make the country's financing terms easier. The visit follows a series of recent meetings.
Markets have noticed the strain. In recent weeks, Colombia's markets - spanning bonds and credit default swaps - have fallen more than comparable assets, reflecting rising investor unease over the government's fiscal plan. According to Gómez, congress is likely to approve a 2027 spending plan near $200 billion; without a fiscal adjustment, the shortfall is projected to top 9% of GDP.
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In plain English: a rising debt load near 60% of GDP, a 2025 primary gap, and a 2027 budget path that needs an adjustment have lifted perceived risk, and Colombian assets have underperformed peers. The IMF and the government are exploring tools that could improve financing conditions, but until a concrete adjustment path emerges, volatility in Colombian credit and rates is likely to persist.
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