After being stuck below $160 since early July, SpaceX shares have spent the week above that mark - the stock last closed at $160 on July 6. Momentum increased on Friday as the company bought a key tranche of spectrum, a move that will let it deliver "complete phone coverage in America," and the shares advanced as much as 3.6% on the headline. Since the stock's low on Aug. 5, the price has climbed about 48%, recovering a large chunk of value lost during the early post-IPO selloff.
SpaceX debuted in June at $135, rocketed above $200 in its first days of trading, and then sank to $108 by late July, wiping out about $1.2 trillion in market value. Some losses have been recouped; since August, the bounce has restored more than $750 billion in market value. Mid-August lockup expirations boosted the shares available to trade to roughly 33% of outstanding stock from about 7.5% at the IPO. That added supply worried Wall Street, but the steadier price action suggests insiders aren't rushing to sell: Laffer Tengler's chief investment officer, Nancy Tengler - an investor in SpaceX - said, "A lot of the SpaceX insiders want to hang on."
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September's rebalancing of the Nasdaq-100 raised SpaceX's index weight as its tradable float grew, meaning funds that track the index had to buy more shares. Said Bob Gruendyke, who manages portfolios at Allspring Global Investments: "Supply comes on, but also index weights go up as the supply goes on," and he noted the firm had exited its SpaceX allocation from the IPO. Timing also helped after the company's Starship rocket achieved orbit for the first time at the end of September.
On valuation, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas says the stock trades at 111 times profits projected for the coming 12 months, down from the July level that topped 540 times, and he wrote that adjusting for year-over-year growth makes the stock look cheaper. He added: "We expect developments over the next few months will help investors better appreciate the role of SPCX in addressing the critical bottlenecks of power and chip making, potentially unlocking earnings growth and multiple expansion for the stock."
But there are clear risks. Reports that SpaceX is seeking to raise $40 billion in debt to buy chips from Nvidia Corp. drove the shares lower by 6.6% across the last two sessions and lifted the cost of five-year credit default swaps tied to SpaceX's debt to a fresh high. Another lockup expiration this week will add about 7% more shares to the market, and in November the company plans to publish its second quarterly results since going public alongside another major lockup expiry.
If you're watching SpaceX because it feels like the future, the facts on the table matter: the stock has cleared a recovery hurdle by trading above $160, supply dynamics have shifted with lockup expiries and index flows, operational milestones like Starship's orbital flight are moving the narrative, and fundraising chatter is creating measurable market stress. Some investors are treating it as a long-term hold and leaning into the volatility - "This is a long play and there's a little bit of aura and hidden-ness, you know, Elon Musk-ness in it, and I think that's what it's trading on," said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst George Ferguson - while others warn you need patience: "SpaceX is just a leap of faith," said Larry Tentarelli, founder of Blue Chip Daily. Those are the pieces that will shape how the stock moves next; how you react depends on your timeline and tolerance for big swings.
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