The Washington lender is stepping up contact with acting president Delcy Rodríguez's government and will start factoring in some data provided by Venezuelan authorities. That follows a formal re-engagement in April, a senior IMF envoy's July trip to Caracas - the first in more than 20 years - and a staff visit that ended in early September.
People familiar with the move say the IMF's view of Venezuela won't rely solely on staff-generated estimates anymore and will now include some official submissions. They asked not to be identified because the decision is not public. A spokesperson for the IMF said there was no immediate comment to offer.
For earlier periods, the IMF plans to combine official statistics with its own estimates, according to the people. From 2026 onward, the figures will be the IMF's projections. The World Economic Outlook is scheduled for Oct. 13.
Earlier this year, the fund said Venezuela's estimated indicators should be interpreted with caution, citing limited discussions with authorities, patchy data, and trouble aligning reported indicators with economic developments. That assessment may be revised in the updated outlook due to the data-sharing.
For debtor nations, sharing data represents an important move on the path to an Article IV assessment. Venezuela has not received the IMF's routine economic review since 2004. The fund has also said Venezuelan authorities have not requested financing.
Economic data access is a quiet but real form of diplomacy. Market Briefs covers those shifts free every morning.
For years, basic statistics like inflation and GDP were sporadic as the central bank largely stopped regular publication, even as the country endured one of the longest stretches of hyperinflation anywhere. When numbers did appear, many questioned them. For instance, in 2018 the central bank told the IMF inflation was about 860% for the prior year, while the fund put it at 2,818%. The lack of reliable official data pushed economists to lean on private trackers.
There are tentative signs of normalization. In March, the central bank published inflation figures for 2025 - its first official inflation release since November 2024 - and has since returned to monthly updates.
Venezuela is working on a complex debt restructuring encouraged by the US, the IMF's largest shareholder, and the fund plans to establish a Caracas office next year. If more consistent official data flows into the IMF's models, the narrative around growth, inflation, and default risk could shift, which in turn can sway anything priced off Venezuela's economic path. Keep an eye on that Oct. 13 report if you follow commodities, emerging-market risk, or remittances tied to Venezuela.
Restored numbers change what investors can even evaluate. Get the free Market Briefs daily newsletter and follow the thaw.
