Shein is set to report its first earnings since going public, and the stock has slid nearly 28% since its Hong Kong debut less than a month ago. That listing wrapped up a years-long, repeatedly delayed path to market at roughly a $26 billion valuation, a far cry from the about $100 billion peak in 2022. The board meets Monday to approve first-half results and other items, but the real attention is on the outlook, as early readouts hint at a softer third quarter. Management's outlook takes center stage against a backdrop of softer demand, higher costs, and intensifying regulatory scrutiny.
Multiple indicators suggest conditions worsened in Q3. Card-spend tracking by Bloomberg Second Measure, based on credit and debit transaction data, shows Shein's US sales were down more than 10% for the three-month stretch through August and early September, outpacing the single-digit slide seen across specialty online retail. Two core suppliers in China said their orders from Shein dropped roughly 20% during the quarter, with declines accelerating in August and September; they requested anonymity when discussing business with the company.
Traffic and engagement metrics echo the slowdown. Similarweb reports Shein's global web traffic fell year over year in August, its first decline since late 2024. Apptopia's figures show time spent on Shein decreased by more than 10% during July and August, while app downloads in August tumbled over 40%.
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Some of that may reflect a broader e-commerce cooling: the same two suppliers said their Temu business also weakened, Temu's global web traffic has slipped since March, and time spent on Temu and Amazon declined over the summer. Shein did not provide an immediate comment when asked, and Temu likewise did not respond right away to a request for comment.
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Shein's sales have trailed the broader US apparel industry since late last year, while competitors such as PDD Holdings Inc.'s Temu and Amazon.com Inc. have delivered single- to double-digit growth since April. Policy shifts are adding friction too. As of Sept. 1, France began applying new fees to ultra-fast-fashion items, and the European Union ended its de minimis customs duty exemption starting in July. Those pressures arrive alongside rising oil and shipping expenses linked to the Iran war, which risk pinching margins just as core growth slows.
Chanson & Co. executive Shen Meng, who serves as director at the Beijing-based investment bank, said, "Without a clear strategy to address growth concerns in the short term, reversing its long-term slide will be challenging." He added that any additional third-quarter weakness would reinforce worries about Shein's longer-term growth prospects. Bloomberg Intelligence's Catherine Lim and Jason Zhu estimate revenue growth will slow to about 2.5% in 2026, with adjusted operating profit potentially falling by more than 19%. They summed up the near term plainly: third-quarter sales will be "the key test." For shoppers and side-hustlers who sell online, that mix of softer demand, rising costs and tighter rules is a reminder that even breakout platforms can hit speed bumps, and those ripples can reach your cart and your cash flow.
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