Australia's Treasury is set to publish its new Intergenerational Report on Monday, a long-range playbook that looks four decades ahead. Chalmers said the document "will show that there are serious risks in our economy, serious pressures on the budget," and flagged that the fertility outlook will "fall further and faster than we were anticipating even three years ago." Extracts have been provided to local media ahead of the release.
Chalmers said the population is currently estimated at about 28.1 million, rising to around 39 million by the mid 2060s. That is a step down from an earlier estimate of more than 40 million. Life expectancy is expected to climb to more than 89 for women and about 86 for men, roughly 3 to 4 years higher than today.
On births, the Australian Bureau of Statistics says the total fertility rate fell to a record low 1.481 in 2024 and has stayed below the 2.1 replacement level since the 1970s. Government projections cited by News24.com.au have it easing further to 1.34 by 2065-66.
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Chalmers noted productivity remains a sore spot, while pointing to the upside from new tech. In his words, "Artificial Intelligence will be the most transformative influence on our society and our economy over the next 40 years," a theme he said the report makes clear. He also pointed back to the 2023 Intergenerational Report, which projected gross debt could reach 32.1% of GDP by 2062-63, and told News24, "The fiscal story is a little bit better, but still lots, lots more work to do to manage some of these pressures and risks."
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