If you have not been following Nigeria's stock market, here is a quick catch-up.
Not a bad showing for a market that many global investors still treat as too risky.
For years, Nigeria's reliance on oil and its tight currency controls made many overseas investors wary. Tinubu's policy shift is now a big reason that attitude is starting to change.
T. Rowe Price's Johannes Loefstrand has noticed the action.
He oversees approximately $300 million in frontier-market investments, meaning money in countries that are smaller and less developed than emerging markets. Frontier markets are often more volatile and more sensitive to local politics, which is why policy credibility and debt levels matter so much.
Loefstrand says he is "excited" about Nigeria's prospects. The reason is not just the numbers, but the policy changes behind them.
After President Bola Tinubu removed fuel subsidies and loosened the naira's peg to the U.S. dollar, investor mood improved.
With the largest population in Africa and a major oil-producing role, Nigeria also got a boost from higher crude prices linked to Middle East tensions.
The largest share of the buying has come from domestic participants.
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Part of that comes down to a rule change. In June, Nigeria moved to a T+1 settlement cycle after announcing it in March, which means trades settle one day after they are made.
Foreign investors now have to front the cash for their trades, and that extra step has kept some international money on the sidelines.
Index provider FTSE Russell has also halted its planned reclassification of Nigeria's stock market. A move like that can push index funds, which automatically track a fixed list of stocks, to add shares, so its absence means those funds have no extra reason to buy.
Loefstrand is focusing on specific industries instead. "Cement is one of the many industries we're looking at and if we see a potential to participate there," he said.
T. Rowe's fund already owns Dangote Cement and Guaranty Trust Holding Company, according to its June 30 portfolio. Those holdings show where Loefstrand is putting his interest to work.
Loefstrand is not ignoring the bigger picture. Africa's debt burden was about $1.3 trillion in 2025, according to the African Export-Import Bank.
The bank expects that debt to keep rising through 2029. That is a heavy load for a region trying to convince investors to stay put.
Loefstrand is watching countries that are working with the International Monetary Fund to lower their debts.
"If a country is willing to address their problems and they're on an IMF program, it makes it a lot easier for us to have confidence," he said.
Kenya still has concerns, but Loefstrand sees a brighter future there.
"There's still some concerns about Kenya, but longer term the outlook does look rosier," he said.
For most people, Nigeria is not a market they will ever trade directly. But the same reforms and risks moving its market can show up in an international fund, which is one way regular investors get exposure.
Loefstrand's approach shows that patient, selective investing can find opportunity where other people only see risk. It also shows why debt and politics matter as much as stock charts.
Markets can turn around when governments make hard choices, but governments can also reverse them.
Nigeria's rally has been remarkable, and the reforms behind it may still have room to work.
Whether it lasts depends on the same forces that always decide a market's future: debt, leadership, and whether the rules keep improving.
As this rally continues, download the Always Be Buying E-Book for a simple investing method.
