August's merchandise shortfall came in much larger than economists anticipated, landing at $132.6 billion versus a $115 billion median forecast. That is the biggest goods gap since early 2025. These figures are reported without inflation adjustments.
Inbound shipments climbed 5.5% as the value of industrial supplies, including petroleum products, jumped 16.6%. Imports of capital goods also increased, including computers with accessories, semiconductors, and telecommunications equipment. The backdrop matters here: the Iran war has lifted global appetite for US petroleum products, companies have been padding inventories to guard against supply chain snags, and purchases of gear tied to the artificial intelligence buildout have taken off.
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Goods exports rose 1.9% in August, with industrial supplies contributing to the improvement. Retail inventories ticked up 0.3% while wholesalers added 0.7%. These data feed into the government's estimate of third quarter GDP. Before this report, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model had net exports shaving 1.37 percentage points from third quarter growth, after a 1.14 point drag in the second quarter. More detailed August numbers, including services trade and inflation adjusted merchandise figures, are due Oct. 6.
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