People with knowledge of the talks say the cut would not apply evenly, and some products made from the metals could face different rates.
The talks picked up steam after President Trump late Tuesday delayed the 50% tariffs slated to hit billions of dollars' worth of Canadian exports, creating a three-day pause. A Friday deadline now hangs over the talks, with broader duties at risk if no deal is reached.
Trump hinted at the shift when he said, "We're looking at that. We may bring some of the tariffs down to a level where other countries are because Canada was paying a greater tariff."
Canada's leverage comes down to one word: aluminum. The US cannot supply enough of the metal itself, making Canada its largest source of imported aluminum. That means the cost of the tariff has largely been passed on to American buyers, not Canadian producers.
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Canada also pushed hardest on steel and autos, two of its biggest export categories. A manufacturing group called the Coalition for a Prosperous America backs the deal, but with a catch. The group wants the 50% tariff kept on derivative products to protect US fabrication jobs, warning that roughly 125,000 US aluminum rolling, drawing, and extruding jobs are at risk without that protection.
Investors see the deal as good for Canada. The market reaction tells you who wins and loses. Lower tariffs help Canadian producers and US manufacturers who buy the metal. They hurt US producers who have enjoyed the protection.
The tariffs trace back to Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, a law that lets the US restrict imports for national security. But the real story for consumers is simpler. Canada supplies about half of all the aluminum the US consumes. When tariffs drive up the cost of that metal, the price shows up in everything from beer cans to car parts.
The deal is not done. Full terms were still unclear as of the afternoon of August 19, 2026, and the White House, the US Trade Representative's office, and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's office all declined to comment. But with a Friday deadline and two economies this connected, the pressure to find common ground is enormous.
For now, the takeaway is this: trade policy moves slowly, but when it moves, it shows up in your portfolio and your monthly bills. The two countries traded roughly $900 billion in goods and services last year. When they fight, you feel it. When they talk, you should too.