Instead of three private pre‑measures runs, the OBR plans to deliver just one before ministers lock in their policies, according to a person familiar with the process. Multiple rounds had become a guessing game as the outlook evolved, feeding confusion and chatter. In March, the OBR stopped listing dates for its forecast cycles, and it is now consolidating them into a single pre‑measures outlook.
The idea is to cut the whiplash from updates linked to market prices that feed into borrowing and energy cost calculations. Sky News was first to reveal the move to a one‑and‑done pre‑measures forecast.
The ambition this time is a less frantic budget process, the person said. With fewer moving pieces, the schedule should be steadier, allowing the Chancellor of the Exchequer additional time to trial fiscal choices before the numbers are finalized.
Last year's November budget was dogged by briefings and speculation about the forecast calendar. Earlier this year, Joao Sousa, a senior research economist with the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said in a paper from Strathclyde University that events in 2025 had "exemplified the dysfunction in the UK's budget process." Former OBR Chair Richard Hughes left his post after details of last year's budget appeared on its website an hour before schedule, and he later disclosed the exact headroom figures for each forecast round in what read as a jab at suspected Treasury briefings.
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Timing matters here. The final pre‑measures round ahead of last November's budget wrapped up a little more than three weeks before budget day. If this year's timetable stretches out, Chancellor John Healey would get the last forecast before the month closes, giving him extra time to pressure‑test policies. The OBR said it will spell out the timetable when it publishes the forecasts at the budget on Oct. 28.
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