Panamanian ministers backed opening talks that could bring Cobre Panama back online, framing a resumption as a way to earn cash to pay for a long and costly wind-down, including environmental mitigation. A reference chart in the report sketches out roughly 25 years of operations with parallel closure work and monitoring, and the committee emphasized it is not dictating a specific timeline.
The document also leaves room for government participation in a future arrangement. Mulino has earlier proposed an "association" with First Quantum and stressed that control of the resource must remain with Panama. According to the committee, the 2023 court decision annulled First Quantum's operating contract, yet it left mining at the site legal and did not determine what would ultimately happen there.
Investors initially fixated on the report's closure language, sending First Quantum's Toronto-listed shares to their steepest intraday drop since 1997, down as much as 38%. The stock was off 13% at 3:43 p.m. local time. Copper in London climbed up to 0.9% before the move faded, and Panama's bonds ranked among the day's larger emerging-market decliners.
Mulino later said the mine's ultimate closure could be far in the future, and several analysts suggested the reaction overshot. RBC Dominion Securities, with analysts including Sam Crittenden, wrote, "We continue to think a reasonable deal can be reached that benefits both Panama and First Quantum, although uncertainty remains around a number of variables including ownership, taxes, royalties and the closure plan and timing,". Scotiabank put it bluntly: "We think the market got it wrong." First Quantum said it is awaiting guidance from the government on next steps and will seek a "fair, transparent, durable" legal framework.
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Cobre Panama is one of the world's bigger potential sources of new copper supply at a moment when adding fresh mines has been tough. The operation has been shut nearly three years, after Panama's Supreme Court in 2023 found its contract unconstitutional. Framing a restart as a step toward eventual shutdown walks a political tightrope - seeking to capture economic value even as it tackles the environmental concerns that fueled mass protests.
In 2022, the mine produced about 330,000 metric tons of copper, roughly 1.5% of global mined output. When operations halted, it took a major source of concentrate out of the market.
If talks progress, the path forward for ownership terms, taxes and royalties, and the closure plan will shape First Quantum's outlook, Panama's risk profile, and copper's supply picture. Watch for any concrete negotiation framework, clarity on timing from the committee, and signals from Mulino's administration - those are the dials likely to move prices.
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