A record 45 million Americans are expected to travel this Memorial Day weekend, and they're walking into the worst inflation hit since 2023. Gas is up 28% in a year, ground beef is up 16%, and coffee is up 18%.
The Iran War is the reason behind most of those price jumps.
A summer barbecue this year costs noticeably more than it did last year, with shrinking cattle herds and pricier fertilizer pushing beef and burgers higher. Ground beef and steaks are up as much as 16% from 2025, and hot dogs are up about 11%.
The vegetables hurt too. Tomatoes are running about 40% higher than a year ago while lettuce is up 8%, with condiments and sauces up around 4%.
Cakes and cookies are up just over 5%, and coffee is the standout at more than 18%. Carbonated drinks are 3.7% higher and beer is up 2.2% even as beer demand has softened.
"They're not going to be happy about what they see," Bank of America senior U.S. economist Stephen Juneau told reporters, adding that "there will be a lot of grumbling this weekend."
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AAA expects a record 45 million Americans to travel 50 miles or more this weekend, with 39 million driving and the average gallon of unleaded at its highest price in four years. The 28% rise in gas prices over the past year tracks the same path as broader inflation data.
Airlines aren't a workaround. Fares are up 20.7% from April 2025 to the highest reading since 2022 after jet fuel costs spiked when Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, and Spirit Airlines shut down operations earlier this month while citing fuel costs.
Hotels are 4.3% more expensive than they were a year ago. A Bank of America survey found about 30% of consumers say they won't change their summer plans, while roughly one in five say they will cut back on trips or pick destinations closer to home.
Consumer sentiment just hit its lowest level on record in May, according to the University of Michigan. The reading lines up with what corporate America is saying: E.l.f. Beauty rolled back some price hikes this week, citing customers who are "suffering" from higher fuel costs.
McDonald's CEO Chris Kempczinski warned about a "challenging environment" earlier in the month, which is a recession signal worth tracking. When companies start pulling back on prices, it usually means the consumer has already hit a wall.
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