The housing market is supposed to be stuck. Try telling that to the people buying million-dollar homes.
First-time buyers sit frozen by high rates. The wealthy are out shopping.
And the gap between the two groups keeps getting wider.
Pending sales of luxury homes rose 4.3% over the past year. That's the biggest gain since January 2025, per Redfin.
A pending sale is a home under contract but not yet closed, so it shows what buyers are doing right now.
The reason is simple. When you pay mostly with stock gains and cash, the home loan rate barely matters.
A Redfin agent in Boston said as much. For a buyer looking above $1 million, she noted, the jump from a 6.1% rate to a 6.3% rate just doesn't change the plan.
That's a world away from the real estate math facing everyday buyers, who feel every tick in the rate.
We unpack what shifts like this mean for your money in Market Briefs every morning, plus a free investing class when you join.
The strongest luxury markets are the ones riding the AI wave. San Francisco led the whole country with a 48.4% jump in luxury pending sales.
That's its biggest leap since 2021, and Redfin tied it straight to fat AI paychecks flowing back into the city.
Prices climbed in other metros too, led by Tampa at 17.1%. It isn't strong everywhere, though. Luxury sales fell 27% in Nassau County, New York, and dropped by double digits in Seattle and Minneapolis.
The price gains spread well beyond California. Las Vegas climbed 16.1% and Kansas City rose 15.2%, both near the top of the list.
There's a supply story too. New luxury listings rose 2% over the year, while regular listings barely moved.
That hints some wealthy owners are finally ready to sell after sitting on low pandemic-era rates.
For lenders, this shows where the work is. Big "jumbo" loans and loans for self-employed buyers are in demand, even as regular home lending stays slow.
A jumbo loan is just a home loan too large for normal limits. For folks who want housing exposure without buying a mansion, there's always the landlord-free route into property.
This is really a tale of two housing markets. One runs on wealth and shrugs off rates.
The other runs on monthly payments and can't move until rates fall.
There's a quieter point under all this. Regular buyers aren't gone, since non-luxury pending sales rose 4% too.
They're just moving slower, and they feel every rate change in a way cash buyers never do.
The recovery everyone keeps waiting for is already here. It just isn't here for everyone.
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