The world's third-biggest oil buyer just spent the past month loading up on Russian crude like it was on sale.
That's because it sort of was. And the deal slams shut on Saturday.
India isn't supposed to be buying this much Russian oil. The Trump White House has spent over a year pushing New Delhi to wean off Moscow.
The tools were tariffs, sanctions threats, and public pressure. None of it worked for long.
Then the Iran war hit West Asian crude supplies. The US folded and gave India a 30-day waiver in March to keep buying Russian barrels. The waiver got renewed once. The current one ends May 16.
So India did the smart thing and loaded up. Russian oil imports ran 36% higher in May, hitting 2.3 to 2.4 million barrels a day.
That's 24% above last year. Russian crude now makes up more than half of India's total oil buys.
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If the US drops the waiver, Indian refiners would almost surely scale buys back. The math just doesn't work without it.
Why? Russian Urals crude has been the best swap for the Middle East grades India can't get right now. Urals gives strong yields of diesel and jet fuel.
It trades at a tiny premium of $3 to $4 a barrel. West African and Brazilian crude trades at more than $100 a barrel above that same line.
That's a huge gap to fill at higher cost. Most other grades just aren't a clean swap.
Two top refining staff told local press the country is already running about 15% short of February levels. Firms have dipped into commercial and strategic stocks - basically rainy-day reserves - to plug the gap.
State-run Indian Oil Corp. is the biggest buyer at a record 907,000 barrels a day, up 28% from last year. Reliance Industries has gone the other way, falling to 292,000 barrels a day. EU rules ban imports of refined fuels made from Russian crude, and Reliance ships a lot of its product to Europe.
The split tells a story. State-run firms can lean into Russian barrels with less risk. Private firms with global ties have to play it safer.
The May 16 cutoff is the first real test of how the White House plays this. It says it wants India off Russian oil. It also wants US allies to have stable energy.
Refining bosses have made it clear: with no extension, they need to find more barrels somewhere. Those barrels cost more.
That math shows up at the pump in time. It hits refinery margins too. The cleanest signal is what Indian Oil orders for June. A drop there means the waiver lapsed and the rest of the world will feel it.
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