Brazil released data showing Amazon forest loss fell 41.8% to the smallest area recorded since monitoring started in 1988. The Environment Ministry said that over the 12 months through July, the area measured 3,335 square kilometers - 1,288 square miles.
Officials also reported a continuing downtrend. Amazon deforestation decreased 31% in 2024 from the prior year, after more than a 20% drop in 2023.
Back in office since 2023, Lula's team reinstated environmental rules, restarted the Amazon Fund and stepped up enforcement. The crackdown has focused on illegal mining and land clearing, restricted rural loans to holdings with environmental violations and set aside millions of hectares as protected areas, ranging from conservation units to Indigenous territories. These actions have coincided with a steady easing in forest destruction.
After the figures were released, Lula posted, "Our goal remains to reach zero deforestation by 2030."
The record low arrives as fires accelerate, driven by El Niño, a warming climate and human activity. In Brazil's Amazonas state, fire counts are up 253 percent versus the same stretch a year ago, and a task force of firefighters is working to contain them.
Environment Minister João Paulo Capobianco said there has been progress limiting the blazes, but arson is hindering further gains. "We're investigating a possible link between the deliberately set fires and the election," he said.
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Marcio Astrini, who serves as executive secretary of Climate Observatory, called the new deforestation figures a historic milestone. "They put Brazil at the forefront of efforts to protect forests and show the world that, with political will, it is possible to curb deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions."
The timing is political. Lula is set to face Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff, and he has been gaining in polls after the right wing contender's unexpected first round finish. Environmental stakes are clear too. Advocacy groups warn a Bolsonaro win could imperil the recent progress, noting his father's tenure took apart the Amazon Fund's governance setup and dropped a national anti deforestation program that had anchored rainforest policy.
The data may also bolster the Lula government in trade talks with the US. In a year long Section 301 review of Brazil, the US Trade Representative has alleged Brazil has historically failed to enforce laws against illegal deforestation, citing it as grounds for imposing punitive tariffs on Brazilian goods.
Policy continuity is now a market variable. A sustained drop in deforestation supports Brazil's case in trade negotiations, while a change in leadership could revive oversight risks and complicate tariff exposure. Layer on a severe fire season and enforcement challenges, and the next few months will shape how Brazil related assets price political, climate and trade uncertainty.
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