Nvidia popped as much as 1.9% early Tuesday, helping the S&P 500 notch its first all-time high since August. That came after a choppy start to the year: on March 30 the shares were down 11% for the year as many investors balked at the hundreds of billions earmarked for AI infrastructure buildout. Since then, the conversation has pivoted toward broader questions about AI's societal risks, while sticky inflation and the prospect of further Federal Reserve rate hikes have made megacap tech names look comparatively steady.
"As rate hike fears have materialized money starts to move into these megacap tech stocks because they're a little bit more resistant to rate hikes," said Larry Tentarelli of Blue Chip Daily, who also pointed to a semiconductor rebound galvanized in part by Meta's Muse AI agent. There's "big rotation back into semis, a big rotation back into the megacaps and both of those play out well for Nvidia."
Nvidia unveiled what it called the biggest repurchase in history, authorizing another $150 billion as part of its current share-repurchase plan. Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang said the authorization "reflects our confidence in the long-term opportunity ahead," and has previously described Nvidia as "the world's first and only growth value stock."
Buybacks tend to appeal to Wall Street because they return cash and reduce share count, which can lift earnings per share. Nvidia's move stands apart from most Big Tech peers, who are channeling more of their cash toward AI spending, with Apple a notable exception. In a Sept. 28 client note, Mizuho Securities analyst Jordan Klein wrote that the buyback "is what investors want to see," because it demonstrates Nvidia "sharing the wealth of their crazy high profit margins with investors."
Critics often argue repurchases can goose per-share metrics without real expansion. That hardly fits Nvidia's profile. In its last update, the company projected sales would climb 70% in fiscal 2028, topping the 45% previously expected.
Projections indicate Nvidia's profits will be double in fiscal 2027 - ending in January - and that revenue will increase by 90%. A year earlier, both measures rose 65%.
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For all its gains, Nvidia has trailed the semiconductor group this year. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index is up 87% in 2026, led by names like Micron Technology, Marvell Technology and Intel, each of which has climbed more than 200% even while trading below peaks set earlier in the year.
Part of Nvidia's challenge is simply scale. It is the world's largest public company, so it takes a lot to budge the price meaningfully. That helps explain why the shares trade at less than 18 times projected earnings for the next 12 months, near a decade low and below the S&P 500's 19 times. "Nvidia is a cheap stock, but the problem that Nvidia runs into, it's almost a victim of its own success," Tentarelli said. "It just takes so much to move the needle."
Put it together and you have a company pairing rapid growth with a valuation that sits under the market's, plus a record-breaking repurchase to amplify per-share results. That cocktail has delivered a 30% year-to-date rise and roughly $1.3 trillion in added market value, lifting Nvidia's capitalization to just under $5.8 trillion. Nvidia has also been the largest contributor to the S&P 500's 14% advance in 2026.
If you own megacap tech or chip stocks, the renewed rotation into those corners of the market has been a powerful tailwind. The twist is size: Nvidia's heft can make big percentage moves harder, even with strong fundamentals and hefty buybacks.
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