India, the world's No. 2 LPG importer, has turned the dials back up on domestic production after briefly easing off when replacement cargoes from the US and Africa landed over the summer and Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. started moving volumes via Oman's Sohar port. Output is currently about 44,000 tons per day - nearly 20% above the August average - said people with direct knowledge of the situation.
Fresh fighting has made moves out of the Persian Gulf tougher. One September shipment for Bharat Petroleum Corp. and two for Indian Oil Corp. that were due from ADNOC could not be lifted, the people said. They added that ADNOC is the only major Middle East producer currently supplying LPG to India.
Officials rolled out a mix of fixes, including lifting local production and relaxing earlier consumption constraints. In the previous month, officials informed rural households that cylinder refills could be made after just 25 days, a relaxation from the 45-day emergency gap imposed in March as supplies improved and backlogs thinned.
Festival season is underway and runs through Diwali in November. Over this window, demand is expected to remain roughly 10% lower than the comparable period a year ago, mainly because industrial consumption, which slumped during the war - when the government put households first - has yet to recover. Winter usually adds another lift, which could push refiners to crank up domestic output again.
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The people said ADNOC signaled it would deliver the pledged October volumes, with five cargoes earmarked for Indian Oil and three apiece for BPCL and Hindustan Petroleum. "As India's largest LPG supplier, ADNOC remains fully committed to meeting our customers' needs and supporting India's energy security," an ADNOC spokesperson said. "We continue to provide reliable and secure LPG supplies to our customers in India and work closely with them to meet their requirements." Bloomberg's questions did not receive an immediate reply from Indian Oil, HPCL or BPCL.
To broaden sourcing beyond the Middle East, India entered into its first term LPG supply agreement with the US last year. That shift has gathered pace: last year the US accounted for only 6% of India's LPG imports, but it has since become the largest supplier, with its share now above 20%. The people added that, this month, state refiners may float a tender for US term cargoes totaling up to 20% of India's LPG import needs next year.
More local barrels, a larger US pipeline and ADNOC's stated support help cushion peak-season demand. But with Persian Gulf flows still uneven and winter ahead, watch for signs of further domestic ramp-ups and new US term deals. Those shifts influence what households pay for cooking fuel - and if energy costs stay contained, it can leave a little more room in the monthly budget.
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