If you are expecting a flood of Chinese cars on U.S. roads anytime soon, Murphy says do not hold your breath. Rolling out his latest view of the U.S. auto landscape on Tuesday, he told CNBC the near term simply does not support a Chinese push into the market. He also sees little political appetite in Washington to allow it, given the potential hit to American automakers and factory jobs. He said "an entree of the Chinese with unfettered access in the U.S. market would be incredibly disruptive, even if they produced here in the U.S."
There is a financial wall already in place. Vehicles built in China and brought into the U.S. are subject to a 100% tariff under trade policies set during the Trump administration, which has largely kept Chinese badges out of American showrooms. Another obstacle lands next year: the Commerce Department plans to forbid the import and sale of vehicles in the U.S. if they include technology created or produced by Chinese companies. Under those connected-car restrictions, Polestar - owned by Geely - would be barred from selling new vehicles in the U.S. beginning in 2027.
Murphy's latest Automotive Product Pipeline suggests the churn could be significant. He thinks 5 to 10 brands now sold in the U.S. could go away over the next ten years, out of 38 currently on sale. No nameplate is completely insulated, he said, but his list of most at risk includes Polestar, Maserati, Alfa Romeo, Jaguar and Fiat.
The other four marques have not said they're weighing an exit from the market. Beginning this fall, a small group of Chinese brands, among them BYD and Geely, is anticipated to begin selling cars in Canada. For context, on June 26, 2026, a Polestar vehicle was on display inside the showroom of a Polestar dealership in Beverly Hills, California.
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Murphy sees hybrids picking up speed. He expects gas electric models to climb over the next four years and reach 34% of the U.S. market by 2030. "A regular hybrid that doesn't need to be plugged in [and] gets great fuel economy is being very well received by most mainstream consumers," said Murphy. The trend is already visible, with hybrids accounting for more than 18% of U.S. sales through July, according to J.D. Power.
Regarding battery-electric models, he projects only modest gains through 2030 as the market recalibrates following the Trump administration's termination of federal tax incentives linked to those sales. Murphy said the abrupt change, plus billions invested in EV initiatives that were subsequently canceled, accounts for the decline in new model introductions occurring from 2026 to 2028, which he called "the worst three years on record" and a "product desert."
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