The Hurdle Raiffeisen Needed to Clear
Raiffeisen Bank International announced on Thursday that its €26.50-per-share offer, which values Addiko at roughly €517 million ($592 million), has secured sufficient acceptances to proceed under current conditions.
The fact that the 55% threshold was exceeded indicates growing confidence in Raiffeisen's plan, which also involves an arrangement with Addiko's major investor Alta Group to later take over the lender's operations outside the European Union, focusing on Balkan consumer lending.
A Competing Bid That Changes the Math
Even with this progress, shareholders retain the option to pull their tendered shares because of a higher rival offer from Slovenia's Nova Ljubljanska Banka. This could cause Raiffeisen's tally to fall under the required 55% minimum. However, "no shareholder has yet requested a withdrawal," Raiffeisen said.
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Support from Alta has bolstered Raiffeisen's position, despite NLB raising its own bid to €37 per share - a level almost 40% more than Raiffeisen's offer.
The Austrian Takeover Commission will decide on whether to extend the deadline for shareholders to withdraw their tenders, a deadline that currently ends later today.
Background and Implications
This takeover battle highlights the intense competition for banking assets in the Balkan region, where both Raiffeisen and NLB have significant interests. Addiko, which focuses on consumer lending in countries such as Serbia, Bosnia, and Croatia, has become a prized target. The outcome could reshape the competitive landscape, with Raiffeisen seeking to expand its footprint and NLB attempting to defend its home market.
Alta Group, a shareholder in Addiko, has already agreed to support Raiffeisen's bid and later take over the lender's non-EU operations. This arrangement could give Raiffeisen a strategic advantage, even as NLB's higher cash offer pressures other shareholders to reconsider. The battle underscores the importance of Balkan consumer lending markets, where Addiko has a strong presence across multiple countries.
The 55% threshold is a critical milestone under Austrian takeover rules, as it allows Raiffeisen to proceed even if some shareholders later withdraw, provided the condition is met at the final close. This gives Raiffeisen a solid base, but the higher NLB offer could still tempt shareholders to switch before the new deadline.
The decision by the Austrian Takeover Commission on extending the withdrawal deadline for shareholders adds another layer of uncertainty. Meanwhile, both banks are likely weighing their next moves as the July 29 deadline approaches.
Investors are watching closely as the higher NLB bid may yet sway more shareholders, but Raiffeisen's early momentum with Alta's backing gives it a strong foundation. The coming weeks will be crucial as both offers compete for shareholder approval, with regulatory decisions also hanging in the balance.
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