Oil fell hard on Friday. The reason was an odd one: peace. The US and Iran look close to a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The catch is that both sides keep fighting over what's in it.
Crude has been the war's main pain point. Picture Hormuz as the one road most Gulf oil drives down. Block it, and the whole market feels the jam.
In normal times, that route carries about a fifth of the world's oil. It has been shut since the war began. So any sign it could reopen sends prices down fast.
A reopened strait would let tankers flow again. That alone would pull energy costs lower around the globe. For drivers, a calmer Gulf could mean cheaper gas down the line.
US crude fell 3.2% to close at $84.88 a barrel, and Brent, the global gauge, fell 3.4% to $87.33. The drop capped a rough week. Crude lost about 6% over five days.
Here's the part that's easy to miss. Oil is still up more than 20% since the US and Israel hit Iran on Feb. 28. This week's drop barely dents that.
At the war's peak, Brent neared $120 a barrel. Friday's price looks tame next to that.
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A senior Trump aide put the odds of a signed deal near 80% in the days ahead. But he warned it's "not 100%."
The plan would reopen Hormuz, lift the US sea blockade, and shut down Iran's nuclear work. Iran would get money only if it follows through.
Then it got messy. Iran's state news agency put out its own version. That one had the US pulling back troops and paying $300 billion to rebuild.
Iran's plan also set its own clock. It had the US lift the blockade in 30 days, with Iran reopening Hormuz on its own terms.
Trump shot it down on Truth Social. He called the leaked terms false and the Iranians "very dishonorable people to deal with."
Vice President JD Vance backed him up. He said Iran gets no cash just for signing a deal. Any payoff would reach Iran and the wider region later, and only if it keeps its word.
Pakistan's leader has helped run the talks. He says a final text is now done. Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, agreed a deal "has never been closer." Trump then reshared that post.
Pakistan's prime minister also pushed back on the rumors. He said a misinformation campaign was trying to wreck the deal.
Even so, Trump claims Iran flew a drone at an Indian ship overnight. He told Iran to "get their act together, and FAST!" That shows how shaky this still is.
For oil, the signature is what counts. The headlines are just noise.
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