Markets have been waiting on every Trump update about Iran for almost three months. On Sunday they got one, and the message was clear: not yet, take your time.
Oil traders, airlines and shippers all hoping for a quick deal got a reminder that "soon" doesn't mean "this week".
Trump said Saturday on Truth Social that a deal with Iran was "largely negotiated". On Sunday he followed up with the more important detail and told his team to slow down.
"The negotiations are proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner, and I have informed my representatives not to rush into a deal in that time is on our side," Trump wrote. He added that both sides "must take their time and get it right".
That's a meaningful shift in tone, because for weeks the question has been when, not if, markets would get relief from the closed Strait of Hormuz and the energy shock that came with it.
Now the answer looks like "later than expected", which is not what airlines and shippers wanted to hear heading into the summer.
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According to MS Now's reporting, the framework being negotiated would do four things: reopen the Strait of Hormuz, end hostilities, unfreeze some Iranian assets, and lock in further talks aimed at curbing Iran's nuclear program.
Trump made the nuclear piece explicit on Sunday. Iran, he wrote, "must understand, however, that they cannot develop or procure a Nuclear Weapon or Bomb."
The U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports stays in place until an agreement is "reached, certified, and signed". That's the leverage.
The blockade is a clock that keeps ticking on Iran's economy, not on the U.S. As long as it holds, Iran has every reason to keep talking.
Brent crude trades near $100 and U.S. gas prices are at four-year highs. Airlines, shippers and consumer companies are all sitting on cost increases that don't go away until the Strait reopens.
Every week of "take your time" means another week of those higher costs running through the U.S. economy, which makes the case for a recession hit harder if talks drag.
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