What happened
Diesel and gasoil exports slid 31% in the opening week of November, based on Bloomberg's analysis of Vortexa tracking. Those diesel flows, which Bloomberg pegs at about 337,000 barrels a day for the period through Nov. 7, primarily headed to Turkey and Brazil.
Russia's diesel exports had bounced in October as Moscow eased restrictions. President Donald Trump stated he was collaborating with President Vladimir Putin on bringing Russian barrels back into world markets prior to the midterm elections. Even so, Russian diesel has yet to arrive in the US, and the only tanker that neared New York is still anchored offshore with its destination not confirmed. Brazil is emerging as a replacement outlet for cargoes that had been expected to go to the US.
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Where the barrels went
Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries eased late in October, then picked back up, adding fresh pressure on supply.
How flows shifted
Even with diesel down, total refined product exports increased by 4% to 1.64 million barrels per day, lifted by heavier grades. Fuel oil cargoes climbed 63% to roughly 805,000 barrels a day, and shipments of refinery feedstocks such as vacuum gasoil nearly quadrupled to around 186,000 barrels a day. Naphtha dropped by 49%, reaching 254,000 barrels per day. No gasoline or blending components were observed that week, while jet fuel averaged about 53,000 barrels a day.
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