Congress heads back to D.C. with a ticking clock and a big agenda

A crowded sprint to Dec. 11

Congress is back Monday for a short, high stakes session, and job one is keeping the government open. Current funding ends Dec. 11, so lawmakers must either pass another continuing resolution to extend current spending or approve a full slate of appropriations to avert a shutdown.

There is more queued up. The National Defense Authorization Act still needs to clear the finish line, senators may try to move a permitting package to ease construction approvals, and a bill to set national rules on college athletes' name, image and likeness could see floor time.

Election fallout changes the bargaining table

Republicans return diminished after substantial midterm losses. Democrats captured a commanding House majority with at least 255 seats and could land as many as 56 in the Senate. With control of both chambers looming, they have little incentive to trade away priorities in the lame duck.

Any funding bill still needs bipartisan votes because of the Senate's 60 vote filibuster threshold. And Democrats are unlikely to hammer out an entire year's worth of government funding now, preferring to wait for the next Congress when their bigger majorities can give them more leverage with the White House. "This former preschool teacher is going to teach President Trump a simple lesson: The power of the purse belongs to CONGRESS!" Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash., the presumptive Appropriations chair, posted on X as results rolled in. "It's NOT Trump's money. Taxpayer dollars belong to the American PEOPLE."

One more wrinkle: Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, who chairs Appropriations and is considered part of the four key negotiators on spending, was defeated by Democrat Troy Jackson, closing out a five-term run in the Senate. Leadership - especially for Republicans - must also contend with attendance issues because dozens of members were voted out, making it tougher to marshal votes from departing lawmakers.

Debt limit: numbers, timing and strategy

Some Republicans, including Sen. Kevin Cramer, R-N.D., have urged Congress to raise the debt ceiling before the party loses control. In September, federal debt hit $40 trillion, brushing up against the $41.1 trillion limit established in the GOP's 2025 budget reconciliation law, nicknamed the one big beautiful bill.

The clock is already ticking. The Bipartisan Policy Center says Treasury is likely to hit maximum borrowing capacity by mid summer, and Bank of America estimated on Nov. 6 that the U.S. may be unable to meet all obligations by November 2027. Democrats may choose to leave the debt ceiling in place as leverage for negotiations in the next Congress.

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Could Republicans try to lift it alone now? They could, in theory, use budget reconciliation, as they did for their 2025 law. In practice, assembling another reconciliation bill after the election would be difficult with exceptionally narrow margins, and that process requires near total unity. The reconciliation route - letting a party-line measure skirt the Senate filibuster - demands almost complete unity.

Permitting, defense policy, NIL and stock trading: the rest of the pile

Energy committee leaders reached a permitting deal before the election, but it may not hold. According to a Senate staffer who knows the timetable, the chamber intends to hold a procedural vote Monday evening to move the measure forward. With big wins ahead next year, Democrats may prefer to block the current agreement and negotiate for more later.

It was already shaky, as top House Democrats did not back the Senate version. Politico reported that Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y. - the Democratic Minority Leader and the probable next House Speaker - did not back the agreement.

In July, the House approved the NDAA, greenlighting defense outlays topping $1 trillion. That same month, Senate Democrats halted their chamber's bill over concerns about the war in Iran. "Democrats will not go along," said Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y. Companies objected as well, targeting a provision that would bar Pentagon contractors from conducting stock buybacks and issuing dividends unless the Defense Department signed off. Adding to the complications, once Congress returns, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is expected to face a vote on impeachment articles, even as Democrats stay skeptical of the Pentagon's requests during the costly Iran war.

On college sports, the Senate in September approved, with bipartisan support, a package to create federal rules for NIL compensation, but in the House it encounters significant resistance, especially from Democrats, which dims its prospects.

The long running push to curb congressional stock trading is also back. Past efforts were blocked by leaders in both parties, and a recent bipartisan push stalled after House Democrats insisted the ban include the president. The House passed a GOP led Stop Insider Trading Act in July with some Democratic support, but Democrats balked since the measure covered only Congress and did not obligate members to sell their existing investments. "Accountability begins at home."

What investors should watch

The bottom line: a tight calendar and shifting power raise the stakes. Watch how Congress handles the Dec. 11 funding deadline, whether the NDAA and permitting deal advance, and how leaders position the debt ceiling timeline. Those choices shape federal outlays, defense contracting cash flows, clean energy build timing and headline risk around a potential stock trading ban.

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