TD Cowen's Andrew Charles stepped back from a long-running bullish stance, moving Chipotle to hold from buy ahead of next week's earnings and trimming his price target to $32 from $44. He also laid out a bear case of $25. Charles, who had carried a buy-equivalent view since 2019, said early fourth-quarter trends look weak at a time the chain should be performing well.
He expects third-quarter numbers to slightly top estimates, but argues medium-term same-store sales assumptions are too optimistic as Chipotle leans less on price hikes to focus on growing traffic. The company has recently nudged sales above forecasts with limited-time items like honey chicken and promotions via its loyalty app, and has made headway convincing diners wary of higher-priced bowls that the value is there.
Charles trimmed TD Cowen's outlook for fourth-quarter same-store sales growth to 1% versus 4% previously, far below the 2.9% gain projected by Bloomberg's survey. He also cut his 2027 comp outlook to 2.1% from 3.8%, compared with a 3.1% consensus. He cautioned that other potential growth levers, including high-efficiency kitchen gear and catering, are less proven, which could make 2027 tougher.
Wells Fargo's Zachary Fadem reduced his target to $40 from $45, arguing the stock has returned to its lows amid waning investor patience, and that early-quarter trends appear sluggish even against easier comps. Raymond James last week lowered its target to $37, and analyst Brian Vaccaro asked whether Chipotle could do more to directly communicate its value proposition.
Chipotle shares have fallen 24% this year and sit near a three-year low, placing them among the underperformers in the S&P Composite 1500 Restaurants Index; the benchmark is down 6.6% in 2026. Restaurant names broadly have struggled as consumer sentiment has weakened. Bloomberg's chart shows percentage changes since Dec. 31, 2025. Even so, the stock still carries 23 buy-equivalent ratings, 12 holds, and one sell, per Bloomberg data.
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In plain English: analysts see comps - sales at existing stores - slowing as price hikes fade and traffic has to do more of the work. Targets are coming down, 2027 expectations are softer, and the macro tide is not helping restaurants. That reset in assumptions is now in the price targets staring back at you.
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