Brent's push to $110 - the first time since May - came as traders rebuilt bullish positions into the weekend on a drumbeat of conflict reports around key export lanes. Iran-backed Houthis are still firing missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia, while Russia and Ukraine are trading hits on energy facilities.
Nearly five months ago, when prices were last at comparable marks, interruptions to crude and fuel flows led to a fragile, brief deal that reopened the Strait of Hormuz for a limited period. Volumes through that chokepoint are now nearing pre-war norms, topping 100 million barrels of crude over the last week, yet prices remain stubbornly high as risks pile up.
"After a brief reprieve, the oil market is having to price risk back in, particularly heading into the weekend," said Rebecca Babin of CIBC Private Wealth Group, where she is senior energy trader.
Refined fuels are leading the charge. Diesel in New York ended the day at $4.90 a gallon, and futures for both diesel and gasoline sit at record highs for this time of year. With Russian diesel still largely kept out of global trade, refineries elsewhere are running harder to cover demand.
Politics are colliding with barrels. US lawmakers on Friday unveiled a bill aimed at stopping President Donald Trump's arrangement under which Moscow would supply several hundred million barrels of diesel, reflecting broad pushback against moves that could help fund Russia's war effort. Trump has repeated that Russia will proceed with a diesel release, but fresh disruptions - including a strike on Russia's Ryazan refinery cited by Reuters - are deepening doubts about whether such an agreement would deliver.
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The US is also leaning on emergency tools, drawing on stockpiles and urging allies to follow suit. On Friday, Washington offered up to 17 million barrels out of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Despite improving throughput at Hormuz, the backdrop is tense. Analysts are watching the Persian Gulf after Trump told Newsmax he would not rule out using the "Mother of all Bombs" against Iran once the Nov. 3 election is over. CNN reported US strike planning could include the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast Bomb. Eurasia Group lifted the probability of further escalation to 65% from 35%, writing, "The conflict is likely to escalate." They added, "The standoff status quo is no longer sustainable for the US."
Freight is another moving piece. Cheaper voyages for US crude have boosted appetite for American barrels, helping the US benchmark outpace Brent in recent sessions and narrowing the spread. The cost to ship a typical Gulf Coast cargo to Rotterdam fell roughly 12% in the past week, according to the Baltic Exchange. Trend-following commodity trading advisers and other technical forces have added to the relative strength.
So far this year, crude has climbed over 75% as conflicts in the Middle East and Russia strain supplies, while European diesel futures have more than doubled, underscoring tight physical markets. Yet futures have traded in a range most of the week, and Friday's outsized jump stood out. That split has traders wary, with open interest in Brent slipping to its weakest level since March 2025 earlier this month.
In plain English: geopolitics, diesel scarcity, reserve releases and cheaper US shipping are all tugging prices at once. That mix can compress spreads and amplify day-to-day swings, especially into weekends when headline risk rises.
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