Oil slips for a fourth day as Hormuz flows improve and diplomacy nudges sentiment

Prices and what's behind the move

At 9:22 a.m. in Singapore, Brent for November was lower by 2.4% at $101.43 a barrel, while October WTI slipped 2.4% to $97.93. That extends a four-day slide that's set to be the longest losing run since June. Even so, Brent remains higher by almost 70% this year, a move driven by the war choking Hormuz shipments and ongoing Ukrainian strikes on Russia's energy network. Refined fuels like diesel have surged even more than crude, adding to inflation pressures.

According to Guotai Junan Futures' senior oil analyst Xuyi Zhao, "The market is transitioning from deteriorating supply conditions to a stage where the worst of the crunch may have passed." She said Brent could hover around $100 for now, as the setup for a lasting downtrend is not yet in place.

Shipping signals through Hormuz

Flows through the world's most-watched chokepoint are looking steadier. Admiral Brad Cooper, who leads US Central Command, reported that in the last two weeks, shipments of crude and LNG moving via Hormuz hit a six-month high. He added that the primary shipping lanes are free of mines, and allies in the Persian Gulf have shipped in excess of 1 billion barrels of crude through the passage "in the last couple months."

Middle East risks and Saudi logistics

Supply risks have not gone away. Saudi Arabia pushed air raid alerts in Riyadh - the capital's first such notices since the US-Iran war peaked in March and April - and issued warnings for Red Sea hubs including Yanbu amid threats from Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen.

Traders are also watching for progress on restoring the East-West pipeline, the cross-country conduit to the Red Sea that sustained damage in attacks earlier this month. After the disruption, Saudi Aramco told European refining customers they will receive no crude next month under long-term contracts.

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Diplomacy watch

Talk of talks is in the mix. In an interview with Fox News, President Donald Trump said he would "probably" agree to meet his Iranian counterpart, Masoud Pezeshkian, in New York this week during the UN General Assembly. The US president is also scheduled for a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, and may also meet with Persian Gulf nations.

What this adds up to for your wallet: if tankers keep moving and rhetoric stays cooler, the pressure under pump prices can ease a bit, but headlines from the region still have the power to jolt energy costs.

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