If you bought SpaceX stock at its initial public offering price of $135 in June, you have had a bumpy ride. The stock dipped to $108.27 in recent days before swinging back up Monday, briefly touching that $135 mark again in early trading.
The rebound comes after a turbulent stretch that tested the patience of even the most committed space investors. And there is plenty of news to explain the movement, from the company's first earnings report to a massive wave of newly tradeable shares.
Last week, SpaceX delivered its first quarterly earnings since going public, and the numbers looked good. Second-quarter revenue hit $7.81 billion, beating the $6.93 billion that analysts had forecast.
That gap matters. Wall Street rewards companies that outperform expectations, and this beat was solid.
Bret Johnsen, the company's CFO, projected that recurring revenue would be running at an annualized rate of $100 billion by the end of the year. That figure sounds enormous, and it is. For context, the company's current run-rate sits at $31 billion, so reaching $100 billion would require a massive jump in the next few years.
Deutsche Bank analysts called the target "likely very achievable." They point to growth from the neocloud business and the recent acquisition of AI coding firm Cursor as key drivers.
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Wolfe Research acknowledged the strength of the quarter but offered a word of caution. They noted there was "a lot to like" in the report but advised investors not to confuse management's aspirations with the most likely outcomes.
The bigger story this week might be the lockup period that expired Thursday. That is the window when early investors are barred from selling their shares, and once it closes, a flood of stock can hit the market.
In this case, over 911 million shares became available for early investors to sell. That is more than the 639 million shares sold during the IPO itself.
Analysts warned this could add to the price swings. When a large number of shares suddenly become tradeable, the supply jumps, and that can push prices down in the short term.
Adding to the pressure, short interest in SpaceX had already been running high. Before earnings and the lockup expiry, the notional value of bets against the stock exceeded that of Tesla. Short sellers borrow shares and sell them, hoping to buy them back cheaper later.
The analyst community is split on what comes next, which is normal for a stock with this much attention.
Citi raised its forecasts for 2026 and 2027, reiterated a buy rating, and kept a $200 price target. They mentioned a long-term valuation above $900, which would require the company to hit major milestones around its Starship program. Their note referenced "rolling forward sources of the 2Q26 beat" as part of the reasoning.
Wolfe Research took a more measured stance. They acknowledged the "big beats" but warned against overestimating management's goals, especially given how much of the future valuation depends on Starship working as planned.
The bottom line: SpaceX is a real company with real revenue and real momentum. But it is also a stock that can move sharply in either direction, and the next few months could bring more of that volatility as the market digests the new share supply.
For your portfolio, the takeaway is simple. This is a stock with enormous long-term potential and equally enormous short-term risk. The earnings beat shows the business is growing, but the price swings show how quickly sentiment can shift. Watch the milestones, not just the headlines.
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